THE Weather Channel says eastern Australia can expect a very wet summer with frequent flood events if ocean temperatures continue to cool through the Pacific over the coming months.

Last summer, eastern Australia overcame one of the strongest La Niñas on record and a repeat is expected this coming summer.

La Niña prevails when there is a cooling of surface water of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, which brings drought to western South America and heavy rains to eastern Australia and Indonesia.

“Weak La Niña conditions have returned to the Pacific Basin as sea surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific have fallen at least 0.5C below average during the past month,” senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel, Tom Saunders says.

“We expect weak La Niña conditions to persist and possibly even strengthen into the southern hemisphere summer, which continues the historic trend of strong La Niña events being followed by relatively weak events the second year.

“Last year was one of the strongest La Niña’s on record and subsequently Australia recorded its second wettest year since 1900. The last back-to-back event was from 1998 to 2000, which saw nearly a three-year period of almost continuous La Niña conditions and well-above-average rain for most of Australia.

“Thankfully, this event is unlikely to reach the same intensity and, therefore, we expect less rain and flooding. However, above-average rain is now the most likely outcome through northern and eastern Australia during the next six months.

“If ocean temperatures continue to cool through the Pacific over the coming months, causing the La Niña to become stronger, then Australia can expect a very wet summer with frequent flood events. However, it’s important to note that these events are unlikely to be of the catastrophic levels of last summer.”

“La Niña conditions would also reduce daytime temperatures due to increased cloud cover and rainfall, so we are now definitely facing the possibility of another wet and cool summer. Although we expect this year’s event to have little impact on Tasmania, WA or the southern parts of SA and Victoria.”