WITH only a few months to the October ACT election, the Opposition has finally found, in the data-doctoring scandal, something it can use to mercilessly pursue the personal popularity of the Chief Minister. 

However, there is a risk – if they push too hard, they will simply be seen as bullying Katy Gallagher and their strategy will backfire.

The aim is politically motivated and simple. If they can tarnish the reputation of Gallagher, if they can reduce her popularity, then the popularity of the Government will also decline.

It does not require a large percentage of people to change their vote to bring a government down. The difference that separated the Canberra Liberals from Labor at last election in 2008 was just 5.9 per cent of the first preference vote.  Labor won 37.39 per cent, the Liberals 31.59 per cent and the Greens, in their best performance at an ACT Assembly election, won four seats with 15.62 per cent of the vote.

The Liberals not only need to close the gap on Labor, they also have to eat in to the Greens’ vote. Even if they have a higher percentage of the vote than the Labor Party, the Greens will still be unlikely to support them for government. Government goes to the Chief Minister who has the support of at least nine of the 17 votes on the floor of the Assembly – not to the party with the largest representation.

The Liberals have been working hard to narrow the difference. Apart from constantly having stalls in shopping centres and door knocking throughout their time in the Assembly, the elected members have been reaching out to community groups and individuals by careful use of the internet, by running and attending community forums and by judicious use of the media.

One key aim will be to win at least a seat from the Greens. They unexpectedly won an additional seat when Caroline Le Couteur was elected by a very narrow margin in the largest electorate of Molonglo.  Although the Greens have performed well in the ACT, their core issues, such as climate change, are not at the forefront of community thinking as was the case at the last election when a decade of drought really brought the message home.
However, the Liberals know that their efforts in opposition and their hopes of offering an alternative set of policies for government are simply not going to be enough. While Gallagher maintains the gentle, statesperson-like persona that she has projected – just staying a step above the hard cut-and-thrust of politics – the conservatives are unlikely to swing enough votes to bring about a change of government.

Attempts to drag the Chief Minster into the fray have at best been only partially successful. The Greens have come out in support of her and are not convinced by attempts to address this situation as any form of corruption. The Greens lose no skin off their nose in taking either stance.

On the one hand, if they attack the Chief Minister in partnership with the Liberals, it helps to distance them from the Government. This would assist in lowering Labor votes and to having voters look more carefully at the Greens as an alternative, which is less likely to get involved in anything that can be portrayed as seedy.

On the other hand, by supporting the Chief Minister through this morass, they have been able to illustrate that they are able to make their own decisions about whether or not the evidence really stacks up on a major issue of conflict of interest, fraud or failure.

It is a fine line the Liberals are now treading as they head to the election.  They are taking their responsibility to pursue poor administration and conflict of interest seriously, but they have not yet made out a convincing enough case.  Without such a general understanding they appear to be just intimidating Katy Gallagher.

Michael Moore was an independent member of the ACT Legislative Assembly (1989 to 2001) and was minister for health.