THE preselection process has certainly “refreshed” the Labor Party, illustrating considerable dissatisfaction with the incumbent members.

At the October election there will be five electorates with five seats each rather than the current three and 17 seats. It is most probable that Labor and Liberal will win two seats in each electorate with the election largely decided by the last seat in each electorate.

It’s likely Labor will win three in some electorates, while in others it will be the Liberals. The Greens have a chance of winning some seats as they have managed on a couple of occasions. The sole Greens MLA is Shane Rattenbury, who won a seat in what was the seven-member electorate of Molonglo.

The order of election to the Labor ticket is revealing, even though position is much less important under the Hare-Clark electoral system where there is no defined order to advantage candidates. It will now be up to each of the candidates to make their presence felt.

However, Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Yvette Berry, Housing and Community Services Minister, are the only two incumbent members to win preselection by scoring the top number of votes for their electorate. This begs the question about how other ministers are viewed by the party.

Simon Corbell and popular back bencher Mary Porter are not running. Corbell leaves a gaping hole in the new electorate of Murrumbidgee, having served nearly two decades in the public eye. Maybe he saw the writing on the wall and was unprepared to risk failing the preselection battle. Porter’s electorate of Ginninderra still has prominent candidates, but without Porter Labor will struggle to win three seats.

The central electorate of Kurrajong has Barr preselected first with the other four candidates largely unknown. Similarly, in the Weston Creek electorate of Murrumbidgee all the candidates are relatively unknown to the public. Ironically, the one hopeful who was well known, Brianna Heseltine (of Mr Fluffy fame), was not preselected. This opens the electorate to opportunities for the Liberals, the Greens and independents. However, they will need to bring high-profile candidates to the electorate.

There is a similar story in Yerrabi. Meegan Fitzharris, who became an MLA by countback less than 12 months ago, is the only known candidate for the area of Gungahlin. This is the one electorate that will probably reject the Liberals’ anti-light rail campaign, providing Labor with a window of opportunity for three seats. Labor improves its chances with competent-looking candidates such as Bendigo Community Bank chairman Jayson Hinder and Indian community leader Deepak Raj Gupta.

In contrast, Ginninderra and Brindabella have a run of well-known candidates.

In the Belconnen electorate of Ginninderra, Yvette Berry was preselected first followed by Kim Fischer. Current MLA Chris Bourke was the fifth candidate preselected. Uniting Church Minister Gordon Ramsay brings a reasonable profile in this electorate – although he may have to counter concerns about separation of church and state.

In the Tuggeranong seat of Brindabella there are three well-known candidates. Incumbent ministers Mick Gentleman and Joy Burch are running with former candidate and political staffer Angie Drake. Former candidate Karl Maftoum beat all of them for the first place.

Early next year the Liberals will preselect and no doubt they will be considering how to land high-profile candidates in electorates where Labor is at its weakest.

Michael Moore was an independent member of the ACT Legislative Assembly (1989 to 2001) and was minister for health.