A POLL in Canberra to determine the dominant local and national political issues in 2015 would not be likely to produce any surprises.

It is fairly certain that these issues will continue to be significant in 2016; at least until the twin elections for the Legislative Assembly and the Federal Parliament are held.

To the extent that the pros and cons of light rail have dominated local politics, one could be forgiven for thinking both the ALP/Greens coalition and the Liberal Party have effectively staked the next election on voter response to it or at least its anticipated cost.

There will, as always, be other issues or factors that will influence the outcome of the elections.

Conventional wisdom is that the “It’s Time” factor, after 15 years of one party in government, would be a relevant consideration. However, the ACT Labor government has been fairly effective in generating a sense of renewal with regular changes to the ministry including that of the chief minister. This has occurred in a constructive and consensual way with changes initiated by the respective members. The notable exception being, unfortunately, the odious treatment of Simon Corbell by his faction in the most recent round of pre-selections.

Health and hip-pocket issues will prove to be more problematic for the ALP/Greens than “It’s Time”.

The performance of Canberra’s public hospitals and public health generally are always fertile ground for an organised and energetic opposition. All governments are vulnerable on health, no less so an ACT government seeking a fifth term and rightly required to stand on and defend its record.

Rates and other charges (including parking fees) will, particularly in light of increases over this term of the Assembly and the relative success of the rates campaign in the last election, certainly feature in the Liberals’ attack ads. The state of the Budget bottom line, if as anticipated there will be a sizeable deficit, will also be used to highlight the government’s economic management and to illustrate the cost/benefit of light rail.

Housing affordability for young families wanting a detached house and the related failure of the government to deliver developer-ready land for affordable detached housing also presents a real opportunity to a hungry opposition.

However, the Liberal Party has signalled that it believes it can ride home on the tram. It is a high-stakes gamble and there is a very good chance the Liberals have underestimated the extent to which Canberra residents understand and will support government expenditure on major long-term city or community building enterprises such as light rail.

As 2015 draws to a close and an election year and the campaign beckon the Labor/Greens coalition has finalised its team of candidates and those of us with an interest in these things have made our assessment.

For pundits seeking to predict the likely outcome of the next ACT election the most important piece of information is not yet available. And that is not the composition of the Liberal Party electoral team. It is the identity of the five (one for each electorate) high-profile, credible, electable and sympathetic independents that the Liberal Party has surely, after 15 years in the wilderness, managed to inveigle into standing at the next election.

The next ACT election will be determined by which party candidate or independent wins the fifth seat in three of the five electorates. It’s as simple as that.

The outcome of the next Federal election is, at this point, more clear cut. Malcolm Turnbull is odds on. The ALP is holding firm to the belief that nothing in life is certain but death and more taxes. Bill Shorten and the entire caucus are praying for both.

Jon Stanhope was Chief Minister from 2001 to 2011 and represented  Ginninderra for the Labor Party from 1998. He is the only chief minister to have governed with a majority in the Assembly.