<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?> <docID>335167</docID> <postdate>2024-12-12 12:31:11</postdate> <headline>Odds of a rate cut dip as more Australians find jobs</headline> <body><p><img class=" wp-image-322989" src="https://citynews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/20210520001543597340-original-1-scaled.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="600" /></p> <caption>More than 35,000 jobs were added to the economy in November, exceeding expectations, as the jobless rate fell to 3.9 per cent.</caption> <p><span class="kicker-line">By <strong>Jacob Shteyman</strong> in Canberra</span></p> <p><strong>The chances of a February interest rate cut have taken a tumble after Australia's unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 3.9 per cent.</strong></p> <p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded an increase of 35,600 jobs to the economy in November - exceeding the 30,000 gain pencilled in by forecasters.</p> <p>Analysts had expected the unemployment rate to increase to 4.2 per cent following three consecutive months at 4.1 per cent.</p> <p>"In November we saw a higher than usual number of people moving into employment who were unemployed and waiting to start work in October," ABS head of labour statistics David Taylor said on Thursday.</p> <p>"This contributed to the rise in employment and fall in unemployment."</p> <p>It's the first time the unemployment rate has had a three in front of it since March.</p> <p>The participation rate dropped 0.1 per cent to 67 per cent, still near record highs.</p> <p>"Despite the fall, the participation rate was the same as a year ago, and 1.5 percentage points higher than March 2020," Mr Taylor said.</p> <p>The surprise result will set back expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates at its next board meeting in February.</p> <p>RBA governor Michele Bullock has cited the ongoing strength in the jobs market as a reason why Australia has lagged comparable nations in beginning its monetary easing cycle.</p> <p>In its November statement on monetary policy, the RBA forecast the unemployment rate to average 4.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.</p> <div class="wire-column__preview__text" id="preview-body"> <p>Strong public sector spending was keeping the jobs market very tight and masking relative weakness in the private sector, said Sean Langcake, head of macroeconomic forecasting for Oxford Economics Australia.</p> <p>"The labour market continues to defy the broader slowdown in economic activity," he said.</p> <p>"These data support our expectation that the RBA will keep rates on hold until at least May.</p> <p>"The RBA board will be reluctant to ease rates while underlying inflation is above target, and the labour market is operating so close to its capacity."</p> <p>Chances of a rate cut at the first meeting of 2025 had improved before the ABS data release, following a dovish pivot by the central bank at its December rate meeting on Tuesday.</p> </div> </body>