<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?> <docID>338423</docID> <postdate>2025-02-16 13:05:44</postdate> <headline>Poll places coalition in election pole position</headline> <body><p><img class="size-full wp-image-338424" src="https://citynews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20241026158501793340-original-resized.jpg" alt="" width="900" height="583" /></p> <caption>Polling predicts voters in working class suburbs will back the coalition ahead of Labor. (Darren England/AAP PHOTOS)</caption> <p><span class="kicker-line">By <strong>Jacob Shteyman</strong> in Canberra</span></p> <p><strong>The coalition will be just two seats short of forming government in its own right at the next federal election, polling has found, but Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has cast doubt on his party securing the support of independents.</strong></p> <p>Latest modelling by YouGov released on Sunday projected the coalition to win 73 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives, well ahead of Labor on 66.</p> <p>The result, if replicated at the election, which is due to take place by May 17, would leave Mr Dutton in the box seat to become Australia's next prime minister, said YouGov director of public data Paul Smith.</p> <p>It would also make Labor the first single-term federal government since 1931.</p> <p>Haemorrhaging votes in working-class outer suburbs, Labor was on track to lose 15 seats but gain three from the Greens in Brisbane and one from independent Dai Le in western Sydney.</p> <p>"There is no doubt that this election will be decided by working-class voters in outer Sydney and Melbourne and other parts of Australia who have been doing it tough with the cost of living," Mr Smith said.</p> <p>Two government ministers were set to lose their seats – Pat Conroy in Shortland and Kristy McBain in Eden-Monaro.</p> <p>"However elections are a choice, not just referendum on the government, and the actual election outcome will be determined on how well both parties respond to voters priorities of better wages, more affordable housing and more Medicare bulk billing," Mr Smith said.</p> <p>YouGov's multi-level MRP modelling takes voter intentions and converts it into a prediction for each electorate, with the coalition taking a 3.2 per cent swing off Labor on a two-party preferred basis.</p> <p>It found that the coalition would need to convince just two out of 11 crossbenchers to form government.</p> <p>Mr Dutton was pessimistic about his ability to win the teal independents' support over Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.</p> <p>"We'll talk with the crossbench, but I can promise you that it's clear from their voting pattern – Kate Chaney, Zoe Daniel, Monique Ryan – 80 per cent of the time they support the greens," he told Sky News.</p> <p>"They will never come our way.</p> <p>"It would be unusual that if we were able to achieve 72 and we were a number of seats ahead of the Labor party, that there wouldn't be a guarantee of supply and confidence from the crossbench but some of them will only ever support the Labor party."</p> <p>However, independent MP for Wentworth, Allegra Spender, seemed open to supporting the coalition.</p> <p>Her priority would be ensuring the stability of the government, so whichever party had more seats would form part of her consideration, she said.</p> <p>"It is one of the factors. But I think we also need to look at what the shape of the crossbench looks like, and what the shape of that support is," she told ABC's Insiders program.</p> <p>As well as the teals' traditional concern with climate change, policies determining her decision would also include housing, tax and productivity reform, Ms Spender said.</p> <p>Labor's primary vote share was projected to slip below 30 per cent while the coalition's would lift to 37.4 per cent.</p> <p>But that was only the model's central result out of a range of possible outcomes, with the coalition on course to secure between 65 and 80 seats, Labour taking 59-72, the Greens 1-3, and independents 7-10.</p> </body>