ALL the media commentary about the rise of Julia Gillard’s popularity – and that of her government – has centred around the carbon price and its failure to frighten the horses.

There’s also been a nod to Tony Abbott’s bully boy character and the swingeing cuts to health and education by the Liberal State Governments.

Sure, these are factors. But in their obsession with the Parliament House in-fighting, I believe the commentators have neglected the most important element: the death of the Prime Minister’s father, John Gillard.

In a single stroke, Julia was transformed in the public mind from an other-worldly and somewhat mechanical figure to a real human being, torn by the same grief that we all feel at the loss of a loved one.

She was not afraid to show it, yet she made no particular claim on our heartstrings. She came home early from an APEC Conference, but she bore her grief in the privacy of the family circle. There was no formal funeral for Mr Gillard since he had willed his body to science. And when she reappeared at a State Labor Conference it was as a daughter publicly recovered and prepared to get on with the job in the way her father would have wished.

The bond between them was very strong. And I couldn’t help but feel that, by his passing, John had bestowed on his daughter his final and most precious gift: entrée to the hearts and minds of the Australian people.

It is extraordinary that at just such a time Julia’s two principal opponents – Tony Abbott and Kevin Rudd – should have stumbled in the same emotional arena. Abbott first declined to deny he had punched a wall beside a young woman’s face. Had it been almost any other politician the story would have fizzled out. But it fit the Abbott persona like a (boxing) glove; and it just didn’t seem like the sort of thing a woman (or anyone else) would make up.

Then Kevin Rudd paraded his wares on the ABC “7.30” program in a way that jarred. It looked as though he was taking advantage of Julia Gillard’s absence and his brother Greg caught the moment effectively when he described Kevin as “rattling his cage” to remind his colleagues of his availability. Perhaps this was unkind, but once again it fitted the protagonist’s public persona.

The overall effect is that, for the first time in a year, people are opening their minds to the possibility of a Gillard-led government with a real chance of re-election. She has caught their attention and it’s now up to her to persuade a majority that her policies of nation building, while offering a hand up to the masses, is preferable to Abbott’s conservative approach that would cut spending and build up reserves for a rainy day.

But will it really be Tony Abbott who leads the Coalition to the next election? Frankly, I doubt it, but the speed of change in Australian political life is so bewildering these days that only a fool would tie his reputation to a firm prediction.

robert@robertmacklin.com