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Migration cut would have ‘negligible’ effect on housing

James Paterson asks why Labor says its migration cuts are good while the opposition’s are bad. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

By Andrew Brown and Dominic Giannini in Canberra

A reduction in Australia’s migration intake will do little to solve the housing supply crisis, an expert says.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton wants Australia to reduce its permanent migration intake by 25 per cent if the coalition wins the next election, arguing the cut would improve housing affordability and supply in the market.

Under the plan, the migration intake would be lowered to about 140,000 in its first two years of government, before raising it to 150,000 and then 160,000 over the following two years.

Mr Dutton said a cutback for migration numbers was needed to ease pressure on the housing market.

“We can’t avoid a situation where you bring in a population bigger than Adelaide in a five-year period and not have homes for them,” he told reporters on Monday.

“We are a great country for migration, we have been … one of the greatest success stories in the world in terms of our migration programs, but it needs to be balanced and well-calibrated.”

Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute managing director Michael Fotheringham said migration cuts would have a negligible effect.

“The impact of that will be extremely marginal and hard to detect … I would not expect it to have a significant impact,” he told AAP.

“The housing market has 11 million properties, and whether you’ve got 160,000 or 460,000 migrants, many of whom live in other households and with people who are also migrants, it has a comparatively tiny effect.”

Mr Dutton also took aim at the number of international students, arguing it was exacerbating the housing situation.

“I don’t have any problem with international students, but I want homes in our country to be taken up first by Australian citizens and by Australian students and elderly Australians,” he said.

“I want to make sure that Australians can get into those homes.”

Dr Fotheringham said such sentiments of offering homes to Australian citizens before others was “fomenting fear”.

“It’s a populist motion that feeds into anxiety in the community and is not particularly well-evidenced or founded,” he said.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has rejected the coalition proposal, saying the opposition had not fully realised the consequences of such a move.

“When you look, the detail simply isn’t there, no costings, no understanding about impact on the economy,” he told ABC Radio.

“They’re a group that just appeal to their own base, say things that their own base wants to hear without putting forward clear, fully costed policies.”

Opposition housing spokesman Michael Sukkar said a new migration cap would take into account positions in in-demand industries.

“It will be dependent on the skills list at the time. It will be dependent on the skills you need at any particular time,” he told Sky News.

“Our view is that you need to reduce migration in order to take pressure off the housing market.”

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3 Responses to Migration cut would have ‘negligible’ effect on housing

cbrapsycho says: 20 May 2024 at 5:56 pm

International students have increased to bring in revenue for our universities which the coalition refused to fund.

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David says: 21 May 2024 at 7:48 am

If it’s not the well documented huge increase in migration pushing up supply what actually is causing the pressure on housing?
I would have thought an expert when dismissing one thing would have a detailed explanation of what is actually causing the housing crisis. Are we suddenly reproducing at an amazing rate? Have a whole lot of houses burnt down? Are children suddenly choosing to life out of home?
Throwing around numbers and pretending you’re not monosynaptic does not actually help and it’s a terrible headline with nothing backing up the claim unless you believe there isn’t actually a problem. Perhaps we have a million homes lying empty in the hands of property investors who probably had tax payers help buy them. We cannot mention that as they are too many people in power who are also property investors.
As for the silly comment about the coalition refuses to fund universities, last time I checked they were in opposition. Why didn’t the current government immediately step in and correct any funding issues as soon as they got into office? Instead they choose to immediately ramp up immigration so I guess the statement is correct if you replace Coalition with Labor.

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cbrapsycho says: 22 May 2024 at 2:58 pm

@ David. There is well documented evidence that the reduction in previous government funding for universities over many years caused them to rely heavily on international students for funds to operate.

As to the wider issue of housing shortages, there are many reasons for this ranging from taxation policies, AirBnB, holiday houses, to covid and the increasing desire of people to live with fewer other people, so bigger homes for fewer people as well as the unaffordability of the many available homes that are currently vacant.

This is a complex problem that has taken a long time to build and it will require multiple solutions, but each journo pushes their simplistic personal perspective, rather than looking at the whole picture. They just can’t deal with the complexity.

Reducing student immigration won’t solve the housing issue on its own. However. assuming international students are reduced, the government will need to fill the shortfall in university funding or cut places and services. They will also need to consider the reduction and potential loss of a highly profitable industry currently bringing in much investment to Australia, as well as many specialist skills.

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