THE problem for Labor at the next ACT election in October is not the candidates.

They are going to field an impressive array with an equitable gender balance across all the electorates. The Chief Minister is still popular and provides an old government with a new face and a fresh approach.

Her two longest-serving ministers are well known and have found their own ways to appeal to the electorate. However, their vote drawing power is almost entirely focused in the central Canberra seat of Molonglo.

At last election Labor had its strongest polling in the seat of then-Chief Minister, Jon Stanhope. The first preference vote for Labor in Ginninderra was just over 40 per cent of the vote.

By contrast it was around 36 per cent in Molonglo and Brindabella. At the time, Katy Gallagher was popular in Molonglo gaining 15 per cent of the first-preference votes.

This was more than the combined effort of Andrew Barr at 6 per cent and Simon Corbell at 5 per cent. In Brindabella, John Hargreaves drew more than 11 per cent.

Molonglo is a laydown misere for Labor to win three of the seven seats.

There is even an outside chance for a fourth. Chief Minister, Katy Gallagher is likely to bring in close to two quotas in the Hare-Clarke
electoral system. Even if Deputy Chief Minister Andrew Barr and Attorney General Simon Corbell were able only to win a half a quota of
first-preference votes, they would still be elected.

But there is an outside chance that one of the two men could be replaced by Angie Drake or Meegan Fitzharris. There is also a chance of one of these women wresting a fourth seat from the Greens’ Caroline Le Couteur.

In Ginninderra, the Stanhope factor has now disappeared and the leading Labor contenders – long-term back-bencher Mary Porter, who won 6 per cent of the first-preference vote and the freshly appointed Minister and only recently elected Chris Bourke who drew just 2 per cent.

The Greens are fielding their convenor, Meredith Hunter who with 10 per cent of the vote considerably outshone the other two.

The Labor ticket in this electorate will include Yvette Berry – daughter of the very popular former Minister and Speaker, Wayne Berry – as well as Jayson Hinder and Glen McCrae. The best known of these is the hard working Mary Porter.

Chris Bourke has an advantage as Minister, but will still have his work cut out to become well-known within the year.

The difficulty for Labor is that their candidates are not well known and have not been as persistent in their door knocking as Liberals Vicki Dunne and Alistair Coe.

Labor faces a similar dilemma in Brindabella. Community Services Minister Joy Burch brought in nearly 8 per cent of the first-preference vote at the last election, but the main drawcard was retiring MLA John Hargreaves.

Mick Gentleman, the former MLA who just missed out on his seat at the last election, is also in the running with Rebecca Cody and Karl Maftoum and Mike Kinniburgh. Amanda Bresnan was at about the same level of first preference votes for the Greens.

However, the real challenge for the Greens and Labor in Brindabella is that the Liberals have moved their leader from Molonglo to this seat.

Zed Seselja drew 18 per cent of the vote in Molonglo, well ahead of then-Deputy Chief Minister Katy Gallagher. He combines with Deputy Leader Brendan Smyth, who is also very popular in that electorate, and in 2008 drew more than 13 per cent, being the highest first-preference vote.

No doubt Labor is still confident that it will win a minority government in next October’s election. However, they are so strong in the seven-member seat of Molonglo that they have left themselves vulnerable in the two five-member seats.