“It’s been a year. One of those. And 2025 looks like the Godzilla in the room for many local and federal pollies.” Here’s political columnist ANDREW HUGHES’ take – locally and federally – on 2024 and ahead to 2025…

THE ACT

The top three politicians for 2024.  

1. Andrew Barr
2. Tom Emerson
3. Leanne Castley

Andrew Barr finishes 2024 as no.1 in the ACT Assembly. Why? Here’s why: 

• No.1 primary vote in the most competitive electorate. 

• No.1 primary vote in the no.1 party in the ACT.  

• Chief minister, still. 

• Saw off Chris Steel before the election, so rumour has it. 

A high “Barr” you might say, one which may take years to see again. 

But the election result would worry Labor. They only won two out of five electorates on primary votes, overall just under 2000 votes ahead. That is by no means a sign for optimism or continuity. The Harris (US) and Miles (Queensland) examples demonstrate leadership change should leave enough time on the clock for the new leader to brand build. So maybe late 2025, mid 2026. 

I still think Tara Cheyne is the way forward for Labor in 2028. 

2. Tom Emerson. Style. Smarts. Energy. Early hiccups and town hall candidate shenanigans aside, the excitement around the indies grew and grew. Emerson’s performance against the other leaders spoke volumes. His brand management since the election leaves some looking like eight-track tapes to his iPad. 2025 will be a challenge as the political winter hits. 
3. Leanne Castley. Hanson a close 4. When Lee understandably went quiet during “Birdgate” much of the Liberal brand front fell to Castley and Parton. Both did a great job. Castley, on the northside, took a lot of heat from Labor, the indies, and the Greens. One cold night in Gungahlin up against them all was memorable. I think she’ll prove a few more wrong in 2025. 

The issues shaping 2025

1. Health
2. Education
3. Infrastructure. 

Health will be the dominant issue next year. The system is under immense strain. Reform and investment are needed everywhere, especially elective surgery. Recent high-profile cases, and the responses from government, are just outrageous. These are people. Not opponents on a ballot paper. But they could become one after this year. 

Education is second. Staffing numbers, conditions, and policy all need improvement to assist a system coping, but only just. Buildings in some places are run down and no longer fit for the 2020s. The AEU have been contained and restrained for Labor, but for how much longer? 

Finally, infrastructure. Labor needs to up their game. Modern pools, a new stadium, a new convention centre, better local facilities. The MyWay+ rollout/rollup is another example of poorly thought out implementation caused by little oversight from overworked ministers. 

FEDERAL 

Top 3

1. Peter Dutton. 
2. Penny Wong. 
3. Adam Bandt

Dutton has staged an impressive comeback. The Coalition might be the largest party in the House after the next election. Amazing. Add the slow-burn strategy with outer suburban voters, tiring of Labor’s claim to be listening to them. A clever strategy on the narrative front means he’s been taking the easy hits on Labor, like migration, and going nano in size when the (nuclear) heat goes back on. Modern politics to a T. 

Penny Wong is critical for Labor’s fortunes. Not just because she has the PM’s back on the world stage, but domestically her popularity is worth 1-2 per cent nationally. Her mentoring of the next generations coming through has been critical for Labor. 

Adam Bandt gets 3 because of how he’s been playing the wedge on Labor in inner-city electorates. Renters Party. Activists. Hard. Divisive. Very combative, anti-social politics. But effective for them.  

The election issues?  

When? March, likely after the WA election on March 8. Maybe March 1. 

Labor will be building narrative around a few fronts, one being positive leadership who are building together. Another is the story being crafted around effectiveness and deliverables, hence the late rush to get legislation through.

They want to avoid a campaign after April as this would include the massive deficit budget of 2025. That would change everything to negative economic territory where Dutton is waiting. 

The Coalition will be going hard on a message of a soft, weak Labor that is dividing the nation by allowing minority left elements to influence policy and agenda. Fear and fight will be the central narrative themes, assisted by the strong and decisive leadership style of Dutton, now two years into the build. 

Finally

Thank yous: To you. The kind and respectful readers of my columns. To all politicians who stood this year. To those who do so from the right place. To the editor and this publication. And finally, to my kids. To all, a safe and enjoyable break and see you in the ’25.