Amid continued fractious debate about visas for Palestinians, the Albanese government will be trying in parliament this week to “land” two crucial pieces of legislation.

The bill to drive an administrator into the CFMEU and the legislation for reform of the NDIS may see further haggling. But Labor is looking to agreement with the Coalition as its preferred route to secure the passage of each bill and there is pressure on both sides to close the deals.

Labor wants reform of the CFMEU under way as soon as possible. Once the union’s construction division is in the hands of an administrator, the issue moves – at least to a fair degree – away from the government.

The opposition has been seeking amendments to the bill. It wants political donations and money spent on campaigns banned while the union is in administration. And it wants the administrator to front Senate estimates hearings.

But if it stalls too long, that would look blatantly expedient, when it has loudly called for immediate action to curb the rogue union.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher said on Sunday the government hoped to get the bill through the Senate on Monday so it could go to the lower house and pass parliament by end of the week. She said Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt “has been working over the weekend with the Coalition to address any concerns they have”.

The NDIS legislation involves issues of balancing the imperative for reform against the needs of vulnerable people.

Negotiations have been extensive, with the government having some amendments of its own and accepting some of the opposition’s.

Once again, the Coalition is near the point where it needs to come to an agreement to back the legislation or its own credibility will be shot on this issue. It has been repeatedly declaring the scheme is in urgent need of drastic change, and so can’t hold up change too long.

Apart from the federal legislation, the Minister for the NDIS, Bill Shorten, still has to secure agreement from the states about their stepping up to help reform the scheme by providing more services themselves.

Shorten has had some good news in the last few days for his efforts to curb the cost growth of the immensely expensive program.

The NDIS’s just-released quarterly report showed its expenses for the year to June 30 were $41.8 billion, on an accrual basis. This was $600 million below the May budget’s estimate. Shorten is charged with reining the scheme in to an annual growth rate of 8 per cent by mid-2026.

Shorten said: “This report shows the green shoots emerging from the Albanese government’s responsible leadership on NDIS reforms. The scheme is delivering better outcomes for participants and these reforms are having a positive impact on scheme sustainability.”

Falling iron ore price raises questions

In the swings and roundabouts of budgeting, as the NDIS savings are providing a boost, the fall in the iron ore price is raising questions.

The treasury estimates that a faster-than-assumed fall in the iron ore price could reduce tax receipts by about $3 billion over the forward estimates.

The significant price decline (7.5 per cent) in the last week reflects concerns about the outlook for China, especially for the demand for steel.

The iron ore price is now below the glide path that the treasury assumed in the budget.

At the close of trading on Thursday the price was $US81.80/tonne. Treasury had assumed it would be about $US83/tonne at this time.

The treasury assumption was that it would reach a long run anchor price of $US60/tonne by the end of the March quarter next year.

Iron ore prices have fallen 38 per cent since the beginning of 2024.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said: “Softness in the Chinese economy and the recent fall in iron ore prices are another reminder that we are not immune from volatility and uncertainty in the global economy”.

Iron ore spot prices and 2024-25 budget glide path

If the iron ore price keeps falling in line with the assumption made in the 2024-25 budget, it will be the first time this decade the price has fallen as assumed, in part depriving the government of the traditional “upside surprise” when more company tax comes in than expected.

The labour market has been a key driver of revenue upgrades. In the May budget higher employment and the strength of the labour market accounted for $21.6 billion of the net $27 billion receipts upgrade.

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra. Republished from The Conversation.