Australia’s unemployment rate has held above four per cent for three months even as an uptick in hours worked and a healthy employment increase hint at ongoing resilience in the jobs market.
Ticking higher to 4.1 per cent in June from four per cent in May, the jobless rate was in line with consensus forecasts.
Yet the 50,200 jobs added to the economy was more than the 20,000 increase pencilled in by forecasters ahead of the Australian Bureau of Statistics release on Thursday.
“With employment rising by around 50,000 people and the number of unemployed growing by 10,000 people, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1 per cent, and the participation rate rose to 66.9 per cent,” ABS head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said.
Mr Jarvis said the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate were hovering around 2023 highs.
“This, along with the continued high level of job vacancies, suggests the labour market remains relatively tight, despite the unemployment rate being above four per cent since April,” he said.
Oxford Economics Australia head of macroeconomic forecasting, Sean Langcake, said the data offered a “mixed read” for the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The unemployment rate was drifting higher – now 0.5 percentage points higher than June last year – indicating labour market slackening.
Yet the pace of employment growth suggests demand is resilient and cost pressures will stick around, suggesting the labour market remains in a “very tight position”, Mr Langcake said.
“We think the RBA will stay the course and keep rates on hold, but August is certainly a live meeting,” he said.
Hours worked rose 0.8 per cent over the month, which Mr Jarvis in part attributed to less people taking annual leave than they usually do in June.
Working in the other direction was more people than usual working fewer hours due to illness.
Consistent with the uptick in hours worked, the underemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to 6.5 per cent.
Viewed state-by state, Victoria’s jobless rate was higher, at 4.5 per cent, than in NSW, where it was 3.9 per cent.
In Queensland, the jobless rate is sitting at four per cent.
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