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Thursday, November 21, 2024 | Digital Edition | Crossword & Sudoku

More to election result than the figures are saying

Political columnist ANDREW HUGHES casts a wide net in summing up his five key findings from the ACT election including whether the  Hare-Clark system still works best for Canberra.  

In what was closer than what the results for the 2024 ACT election reveal, here are my five key findings for parties, candidates and us. 

Dr Andrew Hughes.

1. Labor’s campaign team

Labor’s campaign team, headed by Ash van Dijk, did a great job this election. Up against a highly competitive field they kept to their slogan of progressive, practical and proven. The candidate line up wasn’t just balanced on gender, but also had somewhat based on age and experience. This means Labor can put experience into newly elected MLAs such as Caitlin Tough and Taimus Werner-Gibbings. 

Importantly, Labor’s ground campaign was based around acting more like a challenger than the incumbent. This is a non-negotiable with wannabe candidates for Labor – you better be prepared to be confronted with the door knocking and street-greet experiences. It matters, though.

Weaknesses? Going a bit too hard on the negative, resourcing was far from balanced across the candidate line-up, reliance on The Greens for government, and there are concerns over voter identification in Murrumbidgee, and to a lesser extent Yerrabi. But hey, when you are no.1 this can wait for the election review. 

Andrew Barr… highest vote getter in the ACT. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

2. The high Barr

The highest individual vote getter in the ACT? Andrew Barr. 1.3 quota by himself. Liberal Mark Parton, in Brindabella, was the only other who could get a quota in his own right. Driving into Dickson and Braddon it was inescapable that you had just entered progressive central. Four of the five candidates elected were progressive or left. 

The chief minister showed on election night just how much this one had cost on the personal level though. It does for all who run, but for the longest-serving leader currently in Australian politics at state level or over, the toll was there. 

The love from voters is always the real litmus test, and in Kurrajong, up against all other major leaders, he stared them down and tasted the champers on election night. It’s definitely a team effort though and his office is always all-in for their boss, something others could learn from. 

Independents Thomas Emerson, Fiona Carrick .

3. The indies have arrived

They have. Tom Emerson and Fiona Carrick both deserve their spots after so much hard work this election. Independents for Canberra are only starting their journey. The team has passion, energy and, all important in politics, belief. 

The next four years will be crucial though to how we see the independents as Labor would prefer to starve them of oxygen, note the pointed comments about them in his victory speech, through not dealing with them over the Greens. They will get the unseen committee work. They need to make their own narrative and not follow Labor’s. Time will tell if they can do this in the long political winter before the next election. 

They also need to learn from Labor and get the campaigns started earlier, work on comms and have candidate selection sooner not later. It’s time to move out of the back bar and into the open air. 

4. The Forever Opposition? 

It’s time for a proper review. And not the usual depose-the-leader review. Or get in a party elder who will be softer than a marshmallow. If you want to be in government then you know exactly who your benchmark is. In all ways. So exceed them on the campaign front and candidate selection. 

And was there any more pointed comment on election night than how Andrew Barr openly thanked his deputy, Yvette Berry, for her service during his time as leader. Elizabeth Lee couldn’t say the same as she’s had two. Unity is opportunity in politics. Either support the leader or get out and join whoever. It’s time for some hard truths because in four years it’s 27 years. Twenty seven.
They need to stop giving gifts to Labor during campaigns, work on policies that people want instead of telling them what they want, and stop the schoolyard neg campaigns. It’s time to ditch the leaky bucket/s. 

Hare-Clark… names on ballot papers are rotated, which means the “donkey vote” is evenly distributed amongst a party’s candidates.

5. The voting system 

Real questions need to be asked about the Hare-Clark system now. We need a strong democracy. I’m a fan of 15 individual electorates, and 15 elected on proportional system. Why? How many of us know who the candidates are? And if a memorable surname is an advantage then what the?! Incumbency is a huge advantage because it does give name familiarity. 

And apathy is growing in the ACT. Maybe having five members per electorate hurts engagement with democracy rather than helps it. If we had local members who were accountable for our suburb and not several, would we see an even more diverse electorate? Would we see government held more accountable, and less worried that all they have to do is get 10, the Greens 3. 

Election 2024 may not be remarkable for the result, but it may very well yet turn out to be so for other reasons for ACT politics. 

Dr Andrew Hughes is a lecturer in marketing with the Research School of Management at ANU where he specialises in political marketing and advertising. 

 

 

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8 Responses to More to election result than the figures are saying

Palmerston's Lament says: 23 October 2024 at 7:17 am

100% behind the Hare Clark comments. When you are surprised who two of your sitting candidates are because you have seen nothing and heard nothing from or about them for four years there is a problem for democracy.

But it suits Labor and the Greens. The Libs are not clever enough to push for change so the numbers are not there.

Any change would have to come from external intervention and there is always limited appetite from Federal to interfere in State on stuff like this.

But Hare Clark is not working for us, the voters, or the future good of the Territory.

Reply
nigelw2thompson says: 23 October 2024 at 2:27 pm

The very first law passed by Kate Carnell’s Liberal government in 1995 entrenched Hare-Clark as the ACT electoral system. That law provides that any amendment or attempted repeal of Hare-Clark requires both a two-thirds majority in the Legislative Assembly and a majority vote by electors at a referendum.

Single member electorates had been proposed by ACT Labor but at the time the Canberra Liberals and just about every other interest group supported Hare-Clark.

I’m reminded of the saying that if you make your bed you’ve got to lie in it.

Reply
cbrapsycho says: 23 October 2024 at 1:01 pm

I’d love to see a breakdown of votes from different suburbs as it seems that most representation in Kurrajong focuses on the inner north, completely neglecting the inner south. Certainly looking at services, development, maintenance (footpaths, pedestrian crossings, other infrastructure) and a whole range of issues that the ACT government is supposed to manage, most benefit has gone to the inner north rather than the south. If Kurrajong was split into north and south, would there be a different outcome in the election?

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Palmerston's Lament says: 23 October 2024 at 4:50 pm

I was thinking much the same thing this morning. Hare Clark’s algorithm throws in an apparent variable that runs against other voting systems. It would be interesting to model these different voting systems against the result using the detailed breakdowns from each booth (readily available on line) to see if there is a massively different outcome.

Preferential voting should extinguish at the final point of the entry on the ballot paper. Shifting a quota from someone you did not vote for, to someone else you did not vote for, based on their preferences seems counter-intuitive.

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Bulldog says: 23 October 2024 at 10:49 pm

On the ACT Election website you can get the votes lodged at each booth which can give you an idea how each suburb voted

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Chris Emery says: 24 October 2024 at 3:17 pm

If we only had one member per electorate they may even set up an electorate office where they can be available to meet their constituents. Having 5 people responsible means no-one is responsible.

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