By Poppy Johnston in Canberra

The Reserve Bank of Australia will not be swayed by other central banks cutting interest rates as it says inflation is still higher than elsewhere and monetary policy less restrictive.

Central banks in the United States, Canada and New Zealand are among those that have reduced interest rates but the RBA maintains Australia is in a different boat.

“Members agreed that … it was not necessary for the cash rate target to evolve in line with policy rates in other economies since Australian inflation was higher, the labour market stronger and monetary policy less restrictive than in many other advanced economies,” the RBA said in the minutes from its September meeting.

As already foreshadowed by governor Michele Bullock, the minutes confirmed there was no explicit discussion of the case to hike interest rates.

Instead, members walked through risks to the inflation outlook – the conditions that would lead to interest rates staying higher for longer or even going higher still, and scenarios where earlier cuts might be needed.

ANZ head of Australian economics Adam Boyton said the minutes represented a “clear step down in the RBA board’s hawkishness”.

“This leaves the door open to a shift to neutral by the end of this year and then easing in early 2025,” he said.

The RBA board said there was a scenario where “future financial conditions might need to be less restrictive than they were at present”, including if the economy ended up weaker than thought.

“This could occur if households saved a significantly larger proportion of their incomes than currently assumed, perhaps because of earlier declines in real income and/or more persistent uncertainty,” the minutes said.

A sharper decline in the labour market was also a risk as well as a scenario where inflation fell quickly even without a corresponding decline in economic activity, perhaps caused by a strong moderation in rent or petrol inflation.

Members also discussed scenarios where “future monetary policy might need to be held restrictive for a prolonged period or tightened further”.

This included a material pick-up in consumption growth as household incomes recovered in 2024, leading to a stronger labour market and inflation returning to target more slowly.

A failure to improve supply in line with expectations could also throw a spanner in the works, including if future productivity growth turned out to be weaker than assumed.

Consumers are also feeling their most upbeat, with sentiment reaching a two-and-a-half-year high as fears of further interest rate increases subside.

The headline index from Westpac and the Melbourne Institute – capturing consumer responses to questions about their finances, the economy, and appetites for buying major household items – rose to 89.8 in October, from 84.6 in September.

Westpac head of macroeconomic forecasting Matthew Hassan said consumer moods had been buoyed by interest rate cuts abroad and more promising signs that inflation was moderating locally.

“However, responses around family finances suggest progress on cost-of-living pressures – the main source of negative sentiment reads overall – is still slow,” he said.

In promising news for job hunters, a separate measure of ad numbers has recorded its first gain in eight months.

ANZ and Indeed have been recording a steady decline in job ads since 2022, with the series down 15.8 per cent since January.

September’s 1.6 per cent increase adds to the narrative of broader labour market resilience.