“The most likely outcome across all five electorates is a 12-12 outcome in the 25-member Assembly with the last seat being decided in Yerrabi,” writes political columnist MICHAEL MOORE.

GUNGAHLIN voters have the opportunity to make government in the ACT much more accountable. 

With an election looking very close, the choice for government is between a tired and stale Labor Party and an inexperienced, very conservative opposition. 

The last seat in the electorate of Yerrabi will be a three-way contest between the third Liberal and independent David Pollard. The most likely outcome across all five electorates is a 12-12 outcome in the 25-member Assembly with the last seat being decided in Yerrabi. 

There is a wild card – campaigning ability. The Canberra Progressives skills are unknown whereas Labor turned around the last election in a couple of weeks.

Independent David Pollard is not an “up-through-the-party-machine” candidate who deserves to be elected. He is a small businessman who has a track record of community work. He is a local contributor, the “unofficial mayor of Crace”, treasurer of the Gungahlin Community Council, president of the local P&C. 

David Pollard Independents have prepared appropriately with a strong local support base and a series of sensible policies published on the website. 

Labor and Liberal parties have enough general support to be able to win two seats in each of the electorates. This is why the fifth seat is seen as “the decider”. 

The struggle for the fifth seat provides the opportunity for government, or alternatively, for crossbench members. An important difference from other elections is that personalities play a key role in an election under Hare-Clark, independent of party affiliation.

In the southern electorate of Brindabella, the fifth seat is likely to fall to the Liberals. There are three Liberal incumbents who have performed well in the Assembly and are not perceived to be as conservative as their colleagues. Mark Parton, Nicole Lawder and Andrew Wall have developed and maintained high profiles across Tuggeranong. Labor’s Planning Minister Mick Gentleman has been under constant criticism for poor performance in his portfolio, while it has been difficult for Speaker Joy Burch to maintain a high profile in the area. With Labor on the nose, it is unlikely they will be able to draw a third Labor seat.

In the seat of Ginninderra former Liberal Minister Bill Stefaniak has provided voters with an alternative to Labor and Liberal with his cleverly named Belco Party and adopting Don Chipp’s slogan “keep the bastards honest”. History tells us he will support the Liberals for government. The only sitting Liberal is the largely unknown and very conservative Elizabeth Kikkert. Labor stands to return two high-profile candidates Yvette Berry and Gordon Ramsay. Even with Labor on the nose, and considering previous voting patterns, Tara Cheyne is likely to be a third candidate elected.

In Kurrajong, the Chief Minister and Health Minister will be elected. The high-profile and moderate Liberal Elizabeth Lee will do well and will probably bring another Liberal with her. Shane Rattenbury and the Greens will win the fifth seat and will support Labor for government.

Murrumbidgee has two strong Liberals in Jeremy Hanson and Giulia Jones. Amardeep Singh has recently built a strong profile in the Molonglo Valley and will be able to take advantage of personal support from his own ethnic community to win the third seat for the Liberals. Labor has Urban Services Minister Chris Steel, who has built a strong profile and the other Labor member likely to be re-elected is Bec Cody.

So far this means, with the support of Bill Stefaniak and the Belco Party, the Liberals are likely to have 10 seats. Similarly, with the support of Shane Rattenbury and the Greens, Labor is likely to win 10 seats across the same four electorates. 

The Liberals can expect to do well in Yerrabi with the high profile of Alistair Coe as Leader of the Opposition and another Liberal likely to be elected is sitting MLA James Milligan. Labor no longer has the advantage of the profile of the well-liked and competent Meegan Fitzharris. None of the current three Labor MLAs have such a profile and Labor is likely to be cut back to two members elected. The fifth seat is wide open. 

Power is in the hands of the voters in Yerrabi, who just might elect David Pollard as a kingmaker. 

Michael Moore is a former member of the ACT Legislative Assembly and an independent minister for health. He has been a political columnist with “CityNews” since 2006.