Final NSW Newspoll gives Labor a thumping lead, reports election analyst ADRIAN BEAUMONT.

The NSW state election is today. Polls close at 6pm AEDT. Votes cast on election day should be counted quickly, but large pre-poll booths are likely to take until late at night or next week.

ABC elections analyst Antony Green said that as of Friday, 28 per cent of enrolled voters had voted early in-person and a further 10 per cent had applied for a postal vote. All election-day votes, some postals and some early votes will be counted by the 10.30pm close of counting on Saturday night. Counting will not resume until Monday.

The final NSW Newspoll, conducted March 18-23 from a sample of 1205, gave Labor a 54.5-45.5 lead, a 2.5-point gain for Labor since the late February NSW Newspoll. Primary votes were 38 per cent Labor (up two), 35 per cent Coalition (down two), 11 per cent Greens (down one) and 16 per cent for all Others (up one).

Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet’s net approval slumped 12 points to -3, while Labor leader Chris Minns’ net approval improved six points to +14. Minns led Perrottet as better premier by 41-39, reversing a Perrottet lead of 43-33 in February. Newspoll figures are from The Poll Bludger.

In Monday’s Resolve poll and two polls from Freshwater and Morgan, Labor had between 52.5 per cent and 53.5 per cent on a two party count – this would probably not be enough for a Labor majority in the lower house. But analyst Kevin Bonham’s model gives Labor just enough for a one-seat majority (47 of the 93 seats) if Newspoll is right.

Cost of living has been rated the most important issue in polls, and The Poll Bludger reported that last Monday’s NSW Resolve poll gave Labor a 35-29 lead over the Coalition on this issue.

Under optional preferential voting that is used in NSW, a single “1” vote is formal. The Liberals are urging people to just vote 1 Liberal. I am sceptical of this strategy, because those who listen to this message are more likely to be voters for other right-wing minor parties than the Greens, and at the 2019 election the exhaust rate among right-wing minors was far higher than for the Greens.

Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne. This article is republished from The Conversation.