“I would be very surprised if Albanese survived as prime minister long enough to lead Labor to the 2025 election… the Labor factions, I’m told, are already abuzz with leadership chatter,” writes The Gadfly columnist ROBERT MACKLIN.

In the political game, as in most others, timing is everything. Sadly, Anthony Albanese is out of tune with the times. 

He is a nice guy when nice guys come last, and though it pains me to say it, he also appears to lack the courage of his own convictions. I would be very surprised if he survived as prime minister long enough to lead Labor to the 2025 election.

He reminds me of Harold Holt, with whom I was on brief chatting terms as a journo in The Age bureau and then as press secretary to John “Black Jack” McEwen. 

Holt was also a good bloke and a kindly prime minister but by the time he took that fateful swim, Gough Whitlam had his measure in the House and Billy McMahon was undermining his leadership with a rapscallion bunch including his successor, John Gorton.

Holt had postponed his own leadership ambitions allowing Menzies to rule the roost for far too long, both for the country and the great man himself. 

Harold copped it sweet, just as Albanese tamely accepted the Caucus factional vote for Bill Shorten that overruled the 60/40 vote in Albo’s favour by the party membership. Holt was bluffed by Liberal tradition; Albanese, as a leftie bowed to the hammering he’d copped throughout his political life from the NSW right led by Paul Keating and Graham Richardson. 

His tendency to duck, weave and wait rather than to counterattack the opposition extends to the man Malcolm Turnbull labelled a “thug”. Amazingly, against all the odds, this has allowed Peter Dutton to raise his public profile to the point where the electorate sees him as a viable candidate for The Lodge. 

The recent reshuffle of the ministry only highlighted the “good guy” weakness of the current occupant. 

The pattern began with his instant acceptance of Scott Morrison’s lunatic AUKUS idea with the British half-wit Boris Johnson and doddering Joe Biden, who couldn’t remember Morrison’s name at its inauguration. 

The idea that three nuclear-powered submarines arriving sometime beyond 2040 somehow makes Australia safe from those fearsome “Yellow Hordes” of yesteryear is simply laughable. And they come at a price that could have provided universal free health care – and early education – for all Australians

It not only robs the taxpayer, it undermines Albanese’s own China policy to engage and co-operate, “agreeing where we can, disagreeing where we must and managing our differences wisely”. 

Instead, he is promoting the bellicose Defence Minister Richard Marles, who demands to be addressed as “Deputy Prime Minister” and would quite like to drop the “Deputy” bit.

The reshuffle further underlined his weakness by sacrificing the vigorous and effective Clare O’Neill and leaving the hapless Andrew Giles to cop the slings and arrows that should have been redirected at Dutton himself. 

Moreover, by dumping the Republic Ministry and then abandoning his commitment to a major Aboriginal advancement, he abandoned the precious field of Labor reforms and double-crossed his most energetic supporters.

As we approach the final sittings of Parliament – the notorious “killing season” of political leaders – the Labor factions, I’m told, are already abuzz with leadership chatter.

The saddest aspect of the imbroglio is that Albanese brought it upon himself. He is a good man, but they are self-inflicted political wounds. He cannot change the past; and it’s probably too risky for him to call an early election. Timing in politics is remorseless; and it’s a mighty tough game.

robert@robertmacklin.com