“In Queensland, Premier Stephen Miles and his ALP government are seen as weak, incompetent and overwhelmed. This is an electorally  terminal combination,” writes PROF ROSS FITZGERALD. 

In the forthcoming state election, my prediction is that Labor in Queensland will get hammered.

As it happens, Labor in Queensland  is the name of  a political history that  I co-authored with Sigrid Thornton’s brother,  Harold Thornton.

In the recent NT election there was a 23 per cent swing against the ALP.

All signs indicate that, on Saturday, there will be a swing against Labor of about 10 per cent. 

The primary problem for the state ALP is that Stephen Miles and his government are perceived as being hopelessly incompetent.

This is accentuated by the  fact that, in the last few years, squads of people from NSW and Victoria have flooded into Queensland.

Most of these “southern immigrants” vote  conservative.  This  especially applies to those coming from Victoria, most of whom fled what they regarded as the” Socialist Left” government of Daniel Andrews, and his successor, Jacinta Allen.

This affords a significant advantage to Queensland’s Opposition leader, David Crisafulli (pronounced CRIS A FULLY),  who has led the Liberal National Party since November 2022.

In Queensland’s one-house parliament, Crisafulli is the member for Broadwater on the Gold Coast. This and the Sunshine Coast are where many members of the Victorian and NSW middle class, the idle rich and their children (now of voting age) reside.

Queensland has had a unicameral parliament since 1922. This was when reformist ALP premier and federal treasurer , EG “Red Ted” Theodore, abolished the Legislative Council. He did this by appointing 11 new MLCs who, as a “suicide club” voted themselves and their colleagues out of existence!

Even though Crisafulli has been criticised by the Labor government for not having an immediate solution to the Olympics debacle, and for allegedly not providing a clear statement about his stand on abortion, Miles and his fractured government have barely laid as glove on the Opposition leader

Crisafulli and his LNP advisers have decided that the most effective tactic in this election is to lay low, to do virtually nothing and not make themselves a target. While politically astute, this may not  reassure voters that there will be no surprises if they form government.

The huge swing against Labor in Queensland that I predict will not be because the current government  is  leftist. It isn’t!

Labor’s demise will be,  in part, because they have totally messed up the Olympic planning. This is crucial,  not just for Queensland’s financial well-being, but  also for the reputation and image of the Sunshine State throughout Australia, and abroad.

Queensland Labor’s dreadful record of incompetence in hospital management including chronic ambulance ramping is a serious issue, especially  for older voters. Also electorally damaging is that Labor keeps saying that the youth crime epidemic doesn’t exist, when there is firm public perception that it does.

Mr Miles and his ALP government are seen as weak, incompetent and overwhelmed. This is an electorally  terminal combination.

Moreover, on TV , in multi-media and in person, Miles  comes across as rather boyish and as someone who in response to tough questions does little more than smile!

In a recent  interview by Steve Austin, on ABC Brisbane radio, I made a  revealing Freudian slip.

Instead of referring to the current Queensland premier as Mr Miles, I called the current Queensland premier Mister Mild.

I’ve had several  phone calls and emails, all from disillusioned Labor voters, saying that in so doing, I hit the nail on the head.

He is widely perceived in parliament and outside as being far too weak and as a politician who seems to have given up the fight.

As I said to a close friend in Toowoomba: “Stephen Miles. Tough he is not!”

Emeritus Professor of History and Politics at Griffith University, Ross Fitzgerald AM has written three histories of Queensland.