“2024 is going to be different as it is likely two of the three party leaders in the Assembly now won’t be in 12 months. And the third. Maybe,” writes political columnist ANDREW HUGHES.

Leadership in politics will always be a critical factor in deciding outcomes. 

Globally, we’ve seen this play out dramatically with Biden in the US, Macron in France and, of course, watching Starmer unleash his inner-marketing talents in his first week of power through some very engaging content.

Leaders are meant to represent the values we respect and want the most in someone given one of the most incredible privileges on earth: leading a government.

Along with voting intentions, leadership ratings are constantly measured. Just ask Turnbull and Abbott about how many Newspolls they lost.

In a political strategy perspective they need to be able to engage both base and target segments, raise resources with key stakeholders, be able to authentically believe in the values they represent, and help frame and communicate narratives to the electorate.

Oh, and, of course, be the example to the truest of believers on the parliamentary floor.

This is a good reason why independents struggle so much in Australia. They don’t have a leader. No one for us to connect and resonate with. Who we have hope and aspirations in.

But there’s one more often overlooked skill that is the hallmark of only the best leaders for in itself it is a form of leadership.

And that’s leaving when your time is up.

Not having to be pushed, or due to a crushing electoral result because messages from the electorate were consistently ignored.

As we have seen, leaders have maybe two elections in them. And that’s either as a winner or opponent.

Just look at Shorten. Come what may, and $300k speech writers scream unquenched ambition, he will not get a third shot. In the US they even formalise this through term limits.

Here in the ACT some of these lessons seem to have been forgotten by parties. This year is going to be different as it is likely two of the three leaders there now won’t be in 12 months. And the third. Maybe. 

Which makes 2028 likely to be unusual in territory politics for having three new leaders of the parties currently in Assembly.

So let’s go through the leaders and see what may happen in a few short months.

Andrew Barr has served Labor incredibly well, most notably during covid. Yet Labor is in a bind.

Dogged rumour has it that Chris Steel should be the current chief minister, with Barr proving himself outside the Assembly as he wants an inside gig, such as a UN role in New York, which is as per the PM’s unofficial policy. Thing is, those outside jobs are not easy to get so Barr doesn’t want to depart the chief minister’s chair.

So that won’t happen. Labor are none too happy knowing that while Barr may “intend” to lead the party after the next election, the longer he stays, the more he hurts them as he can no longer connect as he once did, and has to.

Labor pride themselves as being the number-one run party in town. They are, but the sloppy and drawn-out handling of the leadership change is anything but professional. If anything it is ensuring that Barr is counting down his time in the top job and keeping his eyes open for the Melbourne exec gig he needs.

Labor can be thankful for the Liberals, though. They’d love to get to sloppy as that’d be an upgrade from messy when it comes to their leadership.

The empty chair as branch president and vendettas so entrenched that organised crime would be in awe, would all have Elizabeth Lee feeling as though she’s not even come close to being given a fair run. She’d be right, too.

Added to a lack of momentum through a poor comms campaign and it’s unlikely she’ll be running again as leader unless she can get to 11 seats. So say hello to another four more years of what-iffing.

That leaves the Greens. Shane Rattenbury once commanded the support of the hard or Socialist left in the party room. With good reason, too, as he had an impressive activist CV.

That was then, this is now. Rebecca Vassarotti may love the very easy but friendly response of ANU meet-and-greets but she also would love to be leader, connecting with the centre-left voter on gender, climate and housing.

Rattenbury is undoubtedly smart and his old activist sense of fear and even paranoia has served him well.

But externally he’s seen as weak and perceived as only able to throw words at Labor. And he can’t resonate with those who identify with the Renters Party, just the Greens.

With the tide turning against the Greens at the ballot box, he would know his time is limited, but as a long-term party servant he gets to go when he decides in the next year.

For all local leaders, the lessons of how to leave office have been there all along. But like their global counterparts so few lead by example.

While they may not have a local nemesis, they all know that October will be the killing season.

Dr Andrew Hughes is a lecturer in marketing with the Research School of Management at ANU where he specialises in political marketing and advertising.