In a government that puts ministers on show until people are sick of seeing their faces, Don Farrell is a man with hardly a public profile.

The trade minister, who is also special minister of state, doesn’t regularly hit the breakfast TV round and only rarely appears on the major current affairs programs.

Yet Farrell, an influential factional leader from the right, has had, so far, a good first term in the Albanese government.

When Labor came to power, China had restrictions on about $20 billion worth of Australia’s trade. Now there are virtually no blocks.

Of course, most of that is due to the general improvement in the bilateral relations and, on Australia’s side, Anthony Albanese is main player, with Foreign Minister Penny Wong also significant.

But Farrell has been the supporting act, in terms of detail and person-to-person diplomacy, including some VIP entertaining at his South Australian vineyard. He’s also ticked off various other things on his to-do list.

But there is one major outstanding item, that’s more or less entirely in his court, and on which Farrell’s success or failure this term will be mainly judged.

That is, getting through parliament major reform of federal election funding and spending, a long-term Labor promise.

The changes would include real-time disclosure of donations, as well as limits on them, and caps on campaign outlays. The regime would bring more transparency and accountability, limit the influence of big money, and contain the financial arms race in electioneering.

The proposals, yet to be revealed in detail, are not uncontested. Notably, crossbenchers fear they would be squeezed, which is no doubt true in some cases given the large sums spent in the 2022 election in certain “teal” seats.

Climate 200’s Simon Holmes à Court told the Sydney Morning Herald at the weekend: “I expect we’ll support 20 to 25 campaigns” in the coming election. We don’t know how Climate 200 and some other funding sources, especially the unions, would fare under the proposed regime.

The word is that Farrell is close to a deal with the Liberals on his plan, the introduction of which he has put off more than once because of drafting challenges, extensive consultations and, crucially, as he has sought to land an arrangement with Labor’s major opponent.

But he is running out of time. Only two sitting weeks remain before parliament breaks for Christmas, and the parliamentary agenda is presently like an overloaded shopping trolley with stuff spilling out all over the place.

There is some scheduled sitting time early next year, unless the prime minister scrapped it with an election announcement.

But, assuming parliament does come back in February, the agenda will still be overflowing and the political mood even more hyper than now.

So the preferred course of Farrell – who has met the prime minister on the matter – would be to close the deal with the Liberals and try to push the changes, due to start mid next term, through this year.

There’d be a lot of screaming about lack of time for scrutiny. But from the government’s point of view, this would be less damaging before Christmas than closer to next year’s election.

If the reforms don’t get through before the election and Labor goes into minority government, the chances of having them passed next term would be reduced.

The crossbench in the House of Representatives would have power to arc up, and the Liberals, facing a more vulnerable government, would probably go back on any deal.

As Farrell mulls whether he can pull off a throw of the dice, his colleague, Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen, has found the odds suddenly worsening against him as the COP29 climate conference starts in Baku, Azerbaijan on Monday.

Donald Trump’s victory drives the climate issue well down the US priorities. This comes when, as the Australian Financial Review reported, the summit “was already threatened by entrenched global discord and a widespread no-show from political and corporate leaders”.

The meeting’s central issue is setting a new financial goal to help fund developing countries’ emission reduction efforts. The coming change of administration in the US can only make this harder. Bowen – who attends the conference, which runs until November 22, at the end – is in the unenviable position of co-leading the consultations on this financial issue.

And then there’s Australia’s bid to host, together with Pacific states, the 2026 COP meeting. Again, the January change of US administration can only complicates this. If, as expected, Trump pulls the US out of the Paris agreement, 2026 would be the first COP without the Americans. (America’s last exit, under Trump, did not coincide with a COP meeting and was quickly reversed by Joe Biden.)

Trump’s victory will make the Dutton opposition even less enthusiastic about the hosting bid – which it has already derided as a “vanity project”.

How confident can other countries be about the bid, given at least the possibility of a change of government that could lead to Australia, if confirmed as the winner, later backing out? Bowen will not be able to give any firm guarantees.

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra. Republished from The Conversation.