Without analysis, it’s assumed the higher population can simply be accommodated by increasing densities in inner areas and higher densities in major centres… but is it desirable, feasible, at what cost, asks former planner MIKE QUIRK.

POPULATION projections have been indispensable in informing the planning and provision of social infrastructure (schools, shops, aged care, public transport etcetera) and physical infrastructure (roads, water, sewer, stormwater, power) and services. 

The projections, based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and net migration, have primarily been done at the national, state and territory level. They have regularly been reviewed in the context of changes in these variables. 

Projections are not generally prepared at the district and suburb level given the complexity of demographic changes. Instead forecasts of possible populations have been made based on the context of planning policies, demographic trends, likely land releases and redevelopments. 

The assumptions underlying the recently released 2022 projections at the territory level, resulting in a population of 619,900 in 2041 and 784,000 in 2060, are clearly stated. 

However, the assumptions behind the projections at the district and suburb level are not, which may explain the inconsistency with the 2018 Planning Strategy and the draft District Plans.

The Planning Strategy was based on an ACT population of 589,000 in 2041. After allowing for the difference in aggregate growth, the projected populations by district are very different in the Strategy and the Projections, despite both being based on the planning directions outlined in the Planning Strategy.

In the Planning Strategy the population of Tuggeranong was estimated to be 100,600, Weston Creek 33,200, North Canberra 78,700, Gungahlin 100,200 and Molonglo 51,400. 

In the 2022 Projections the population of Tuggeranong was projected to be 87,300, Weston Creek 24,600, North Canberra 98,500, Gungahlin 116,500 and Molonglo 67,600.

The different estimates are concerning as they affect the provision of infrastructure, services and facilities. 

While the Planning Strategy is likely to have overstated the populations in areas such as Tuggeranong and Weston Creek, the 2022 Projections are likely to have underestimated the population in many suburbs, by failing to recognise the regeneration taking place and the level of dual occupancy occurring. 

For example, the 2022 Projections indicate a fall in the population of Kambah/Wanniassa by 2033 of 832 despite these suburbs growing by 979 between 2016 and 2021, after earlier decline. Similarly the population of Weston Creek (excluding Weston where new development is identified) is projected to fall by 441 despite growing by 882 between 2016 and 2021 and Cook/Aranda is projected to fall by 422 despite growing by 183 between 2016 and 2021. 

The situation is further complicated by the estimates of dwelling capacities by district in the Planning Strategy. The capacity of Molonglo is identified at 25,000 dwellings suggesting, depending on trends in dwelling occupancy, a population of between 55,000 to 60,000. The dwelling capacity of Gungahlin is identified at some 40,000 dwellings indicating a population of around 100,000 to 105,000.

The 2022 Projections, without analysis, assume the higher projected population can simply be accommodated by increasing densities in inner areas and higher densities in the major centres (eg, the population of Molonglo is said to increase to 86,000 in 2060 – is it desirable, feasible, at what cost?).

All the district and suburb estimates of population suffer from the inadequacies of the 2018 Planning Strategy which assumed 70 per cent infill best achieved compact city objectives. 

The strategy did not evaluate the merits of higher greenfield share scenarios where such areas are well connected and have substantial employment, services and facilities. 

Clearly there is a need to review the strategy to comprehensively consider housing preferences, infrastructure requirements, transport, environmental impacts and housing affordability.

Such a review will need an increase in the strategic planning capability within the bureaucracy including the appointment of a demographer. 

There has not been an in-house demographer since 2015. Such capacity may increase the community’s confidence in the competency of the government in exploring alternative urban futures and avoid the muddle of the 2018 Planning Strategy, District Plans and 2022 Projections.

Mike Quirk is a retired NCDC and ACT government planner.