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New RBA governor to send the right message on rate talk

Incoming RBA governor Michele Bullock has been with the central bank for almost four decades. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

By Paul Osborne in Canberra

MORTGAGE holders and investors are expected to get more clarity on interest rate decisions under the new boss of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

The central bank’s deputy governor Michele Bullock was confirmed on Friday as the replacement for Philip Lowe who will step down as governor in September when his seven-year term expires.

A key role for Ms Bullock following a landmark review of the RBA will be to hold a media conference after each rate decision, which will be made eight times a year instead of 11.

As well, the 80-page quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy will be released at the same time as the outcome of board meetings, providing a deep dive into decision-making processes.

More speeches by senior leadership in the bank can also be expected.

Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been heartened by the favourable response to Ms Bullock’s appointment.

“Michelle Bullock’s appointment represents the best possible combination of experience and expertise and a fresh leadership perspective at the Reserve Bank of Australia,” he said on Saturday.

“No appointment is ever unanimously supported, but it has been welcomed, really, right across the board – unions, business, economists, academics, and even in a bipartisan way – and I think that’s a good thing.”

AMP’s Shane Oliver said it was an excellent choice given Ms Bullock’s almost four decades at the RBA and her monetary policy credibility.

“Because she is well known and highly experienced in communicating RBA views it means less risk of the initial uncertainty that can come with new central bank governors and hence less need for her to prove herself by, for example, coming out even more hawkish on interest rates,” he said.

Given that she still had to get inflation – currently running at about seven per cent – back to the RBA’s two to three per cent target, Dr Oliver doubted the change in governor would result in “any significant change in the outlook for interest rates”.

“The good news is that all the heavy lifting on interest rates has already been done and with inflation falling globally and in Australia we are likely at or close to the top on interest rates,” he said.

“In fact, the new governor’s first big decision will likely be to cut interest rates starting next year, although she will have to deal with the fallout from the rate hikes including the high risk of recession.”

The RBA has been steadily raising the cash interest rate since May last year to the current 4.10 per cent, which in turn has resulted in higher mortgage and lending rates.

Mr Chalmers said it was clear many Australians were under the pump due to the current challenging economic conditions.

“We know that the economy is expected to slow relatively substantially in the months ahead,” he said.

“And so what we’re doing … is building our buffers against that uncertainty and providing cost of living relief without adding (to) inflation.

“The Reserve Bank’s made it clear that my budget is taking the pressure off inflation rather than adding to it.”

The central bank’s next decision on interest rates will be revealed on the first Tuesday in August.

First woman to lead Reserve Bank as Lowe exit locked in

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