The federal budget subtly but tellingly left little room to move for the Opposition when it came to spending announcements, either now or in the future, writes ANDREW HUGHES.

Budgets aren’t just economic documents in Australia. They set the narrative for the year ahead. 

They are one of the few occasions where people watch politicians live in primetime in their natural environment: parliament. 

The election budget used to be just the one held before the election, although that is still an important strategic method. There are now two election budgets, with the one held before the election year budget being just as important strategically. 

A more cynical electorate, thanks to the digital age and exposure to high negative messaging, means that election year budgets are always seen as butter-ups by voters. But less so is the pre-election year budget. 

These set narratives. This was the case federally this year. For Labor, there were two big narratives. Firstly, to be seen as good economic managers through modest spending, keeping interest rates steady to stop any drift to the Coalition in high-mortgage-stress areas of the outer-urban areas. 

Secondly, was the narrative of reinforcing perceived brand strengths in their big three on the left: housing, welfare and social reforms. 

This was important for Labor as they know the Greens, the self-declared “Renters Party”, are looking forward to hitting them in three-way contests in inner-urban seats such as the prime minister’s in Grayndler. 

The ultimate aim is to get enough seats in the lower house to hold the balance of power and push for their leader, Adam Bandt, to sit in the outer Cabinet as likely Minister for Climate Change. 

The federal budget subtly but tellingly left little room to move for the Opposition when it came to spending announcements, either now or in the future. The release of the current year + three spending figures was designed as a nice trap for the unwary on the Opposition benches. 

Yet Dutton showed he’s up for the contest come the likely Federal election in May 2025. Instead, he set his own narratives, which he could take into the Coalition heartland, but also to the likely areas they need to win seats in to be in with a chance of minority government. 

Similar to Labor, two key narratives were emerging here built around the central theme of risk. Safety, locally through knife crime, domestic violence and immigration detainees. Internationally, through stronger defence spending and closer relationships with key allies. All big picture but sowing the seeds for a likely fear-based campaign in 2025. 

Next, and obviously, was the economy and how Labor again can’t manage the economy and is ignoring the suffering of those in the community. The tie-in to nuclear power came here, spruiked as providing lower energy costs and therefore a longer-term way of ensuring inflation is down and stays down. Again, big picture. 

It was good, but also designed to be scant on details as no reason yet to give away the keys to the kingdom to a government still looking certain to be in power come post-election 2025. Smart strategy from Dutton as he raised awareness without losing on performance. 

But what does this all mean though for an ACT budget? 

In a way it’s the same thing. A budget to be effective in our eyes needs to be closely matched to the leader, party and government narrative. Locally, Labor has been getting plenty of mixed feedback on their big three narratives built around their big theme: safety in stability. 

Their big three narratives are progress, society and inclusion, and climate, although the last is nicely leveraged off the Greens, thank you very much. 

Progress will be through three policies of housing, public transport, and the aspirational developments of the city itself such as Stadium 2075 and Hospital North 2040. Never said progress would be quick, okay, cost-of-living having increased most government expenditure by 20 per cent in cost and length of additional time required for completion. Hello opportunities for the Libs. 

Social inclusion is Labor’s bread and butter. So policies designed to alleviate cost of living are important, along with more spending on social housing and targeted announcements on education, health, and First Nations issues where the ACT is starting to lag behind more and more (see Jon Stanhope’s pieces on this). 

Climate is obvious, although the Greens get to swallow the block of coal when it comes to handling issues such as wood-fired heaters, the under-investment in cycling infrastructure and the slow and restrictive rollout of battery subsidies for those with rooftop solar. 

Still, Labor are the masters of the long mining on pre-budget and post-budget announcements, closely aligned to narratives and themes they know they are on safe ground on. 

Elizabeth Lee, unlike her federal leader, does not get a prime-time reply speech or focus. Nor does she get the advantage of government on narrative setting and announcements. Instead she needs to innovate and initiate far more between now and the election on her budget strategy. 

Like Dutton, it’s a fine line between details too early and details too late. Only time will tell though if she can get the balance and game of narratives right.

Dr Andrew Hughes is a lecturer in marketing with the Research School of Management at ANU where he specialises in political marketing and advertising, and the use of emotions in marketing and tourism.