By Savannah Meacham and Fraser Barton in Brisbane

Liberal National Party leader David Crisafulli has claimed victory in the Queensland election as Labor’s outgoing Premier Steven Miles fell short of conceding defeat. 

The LNP was set for a majority government late on Saturday relying on pre-poll votes to shore up its position after its vote fell away from opinion polling showing it was in a more commanding position heading into the election.

Mr Crisafulli said Queenslanders had voted for hope over fear.

“They have voted for a fresh start, and they have voted for a majority LNP government,” Mr Crisafulli told supporters.

“To borrow a phrase from a different era and a different political movement, ‘It’s time’ – it’s time.

“It was a time for a fresh start for Queensland.”

The premier-elect began by thanking Mr Miles for his service as premier.

Earlier Mr Miles said Labor had lost its majority but cast doubt on whether the LNP could form a majority government.

“Watching the results … tonight has not been enough to secure a majority of seats for Labor and it is unlikely that the LNP is likely to have a majority,” he said.

ABC election analyst Antony Green predicted the LNP would hold 49 seats and Labor 31.

With almost 40 per cent of the vote counted, there was a 6.0 per cent swing to the Liberal National Party – more than the 5.7 per cent uniform swing it needed to form government.

Labor went into the election holding 51 seats to the LNP’s 35.

Mr Crisafulli will become just the second Queensland Liberal leader this millennium after Campbell Newman held power from 2012 to 2015.

The member for Broadwater had long been tipped to end Labor’s nine-year reign with polls favouring Mr Crisafulli for much of the electoral term and before former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk stepped down in December.

But Mr Miles and Labor narrowed the two-party preferred vote right up until election day.

Mr Miles and Mr Crisafulli spent the final day of the campaign pressing the flesh at polling booths but had a long night as counting showed a close-run race before pre-polls were counted.

Mr Miles made up last-minute ground in public opinion.

Deputy Premier Cameron Dick said his party had made an enormous improvement after facing an “absolute wipeout” in 2023.

Labor Party National President Wayne Swan said Mr Miles had put up a good fight and he hoped he remained as opposition leader.

“It has been a first-class campaign which has avoided what could have been a landslide four months ago,” he told AAP.

The number of seats in doubt was 10, with the Katter Australian Party winning three seats and the Greens just one, losing its prized South Brisbane seat to Labor.