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Treasurer ‘still shooting’ for a budget surplus

Treasurer Jim Chalmers. Photo: Facebook.

By Michelle Grattan in Canberra

Treasurer Jim Chalmers will say lower commodity prices and a softening labour market mean this year’s revenue upgrade will be modest, when he outlines on Thursday the government’s strategy for the May 14 budget.

At the same time, Chalmers will all but confirm the budget will be in the black, declaring: “We are still shooting for a second surplus”.

He also will indicated the government is likely to bank a smaller proportion than previously of what revenue upgrade there is. In earlier budgets it banked almost all of it. This time, he says, “we’ll bank what we can” of the upgrade.

Chalmers’ first two budgets were each helped by revenue upgrades of more than $100 billion, but there won’t be any such bonanza this year.

“In fact we are even looking at much less than the $69 billion we booked in the latest mid-year budget update,” Chalmers will tell a Committee for Economic Development of Australia function.

On the commodities front, the iron ore price has been falling. “In the last week alone it has fallen by almost 10% due to concerns about the demand for steel in China,” Chalmers says in his address, part of which was released ahead of delivery. Earlier this week, it was trading at less than $94 a tonne.

“Its current price is around 20 per cent cent lower than it was this far out from last year’s budget.”

Thermal coal has been on the general path Treasury assumed in the December mid-year budget update. But its present price is about a third lower than this time last year.

The strong labour market contributed a good part of the revenue upgrades of the previous budgets.

Chalmers says while the labour market remains resilient, it is softening. “So we won’t get the very substantial revenue upgrades we’ve seen from outperforming expectations here.

“At the end of last year, there were 14.2 million Australians in work – this is around 500,000 more than Treasury was forecasting at the time of the election.

“We welcome this, but we don’t expect to get such upside forecast surprises this time around.”

Chalmers says the three biggest drivers of the government’s strategy for this budget are “global uncertainty, persistent cost of living pressures, and slowing growth”.

“These pressures necessitate an approach to the third budget which is a little bit different, but not a lot different, to the first two,” he says.

“There will still be a premium on what’s responsible, affordable, meaningful and methodical.

“There will still be a primary focus, but not a sole focus, on inflation.”The Conversation

Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra. Republished from The Conversation.

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Michelle Grattan

Michelle Grattan

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3 Responses to Treasurer ‘still shooting’ for a budget surplus

David says: 14 March 2024 at 2:03 pm

Where or where have the likes of great Labor leaders like Hawke and Keating gone? We now have a bunch of followers and reporters. The report on what is happening to their economy and how it immediately affects how much they can spend. What we need is structural reform to address our greatest economic mistake, housing affordability for owner occupiers. We’ve been headed down this path for a while with a succession of useless Treasurers and the current one is no better and arguably worse as the problem is now very clear.

Somehow we have got locked into interest rates as though it has something to do with the problem. It’s not the problem because they are so low it is affecting the ability of hard working tax payers to avoid welfare in their retirement. The problem is housing costs too much because the cost of housing has risen at as much faster rate the wages. Lowering interest rates doesn’t make housing cheaper and arguably pushes it up because the problem is supply where supply is affected by an unjustifiable increase in the number of owner occupiers’ looking for housing plus the fact that they need to compete with tax payer backed property investors. Decreasing interest rates increases the competition from property investors. Wages growth also isn’t the answer as it also grows the wages of all the people involved in building a house.

I guess we shouldn’t be surprised when we have articles like this one that report on the mumblings of the Treasurer as though he actually has some interest/ability in guiding the economy.

Don’t be fooled into thinking wages growth and controlling inflation will make any significant difference to the housing crisis.

We need to increase supply of affordable houses. Building more new houses at the current price is not the answer as they are already too expense. We need to decrease competition by limiting any increase in the owner occupiers, reduce the property investors in the market and convert rented properties into owner occupied properties.

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Uncle Red says: 14 March 2024 at 4:35 pm

Anyway, what is the great deal about “still shooting for a second surplus”, or any other surplus for that matter, when we have an ever increasing government debt, forecast to exceed a trillion shortly. Do we need to ape everything our great friend across the pacific do; can we afford to continue doing it??

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David says: 14 March 2024 at 11:04 pm

It’s also worth pulling apart the concept of we need immigration to drive taxes as people like to say cut immigration and we’ll be poorer as government will lose revenue. Well, that is just an admission the governments cannot budget properly and rely on estimates of future revenue from immigration to balance the books. (aka provide a surplus). If the Treasurer budgeted so that he wasn’t relying on taxes from immigration then that argument would go away. That’s the problem. Joining the dots, the government is deliberately making the housing crisis worse through immigration as it relies on the estimated tax revenue from immigration. We need fundamental tax reform moving away from a reliance on income taxes which is currently structured as a disincentive to earn more. We need to earn more to do something as simple as buy a house. We should also make things like income from property investment a net positive to the tax payer.

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