“If the Greens decide to genuinely sit on the crossbench, the community can also expect more effective work on the parliamentary committees and more careful consideration of all government decisions,” writes politcal columnist MICHAEL MOORE.

The last seat in Yerrabi is still in doubt. Although early indications are that the Labor-Greens coalition will remain in power, it is possible that the people of Canberra have chosen the first effective crossbench in the Assembly since 2004. 

If the last seat in Yerrabi does go to Independent for Canberra’s candidate David Pollard, there will be a significant change in the dynamic of government in the ACT. Under such circumstances, Liberal leader Elizabeth Lee will regret conceding to Labor leader Andrew Barr. 

With just two Greens, but three independent MLAs, the power of the crossbench will be significant. If the Greens decide to genuinely sit on the crossbench, the community can also expect more effective work on the parliamentary committees and more careful consideration of all government decisions.

Canberrans do expect stable government. This will require a commitment from Fiona Carrick, Thomas Emerson (and possibly David Pollard) with the Greens to support the Chief Minister and ministers in any no-confidence motion unless there is “reprehensible” conduct. It also demands allowing the government to have its budget by supporting the supply bills.

The rather statesman-like post-election speeches of Lee and Barr do point to the ACT Assembly working in a more co-operative manner than has been the case for many years. The Greens leader, Shane Rattenbury, also managed well considering his party lost around half of its elected members.

On first-preference votes, each of the three major parties in this election continue on a downhill trajectory. The Liberals peaked in 1995 with support from just over 40 per cent of the vote and are now at around 30 per cent. For Labor, the 2004 result was a high point with support from nearly 47 per cent of Canberrans. 

This time, Labor had support at around 34 per cent first-preference votes and the Canberra Liberals had 33 per cent. The Greens peaked in 2008 with nearly 16 per cent of the first preference vote and have dropped to 12.5 per cent. 

In his post-election speech Rattenbury spoke of the Greens as a crossbench party. Attempts at rewriting history in this “newspeak” manner will not be successful. The Greens have been in a coalition with Labor for a considerable time. They have not been a crossbench party. No doubt, as part of their review of the election, the Greens party will consider returning to the crossbench for this Assembly.

In marked contrast, all-independent first-preference votes exceeded that of the Greens at 12.8 per cent. This is second only to the 1998 independent vote of 17.1 per cent. 

Carrick and Emerson are committed to remaining on the crossbench and holding the government accountable.

The last seat in Yerrabi has been attributed to sitting Greens MLA Andrew Braddock. However, this could change during the preference count. At one point, the count will be as close as 100 votes separating the two. This is where the possibility lies of Pollard snatching this last seat from the Greens. 

The consequence of the Greens losing this seat would be the Labor-Greens coalition losing their majority. The outcome – a minority government that will be much more accountable.

Consider, for example, the pending report of the ACT Integrity Commission on the Campbell Primary School. There are questions to be answered. Why was this report not tabled before the election? Was there “reprehensible” conduct on the part of re-elected Deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry? What action, if any, needs to be taken by the government and the Legislative Assembly?

The Liberals have announced support for a royal commission into the ACT Healthcare system that has been in decline since Labor came to power 23 years ago. If Pollard is elected or if the Greens can operate independently of the Labor Party, it is possible that a vote of the Assembly could mean the establishment of such a commission of inquiry.

Andrew Barr used his post-election speech to argue that the election results give a green light to take light rail to Woden. If the Greens retain three seats – it will proceed. However, a difference of just over 100 preference votes in Yerrabi could see this challenged in the Assembly and a requirement for a transparent case to be made public.

There remains a chance of a minority government. If it is the case, Canberrans can expect more transparency and more accountability.

Michael Moore is a former member of the ACT Legislative Assembly and an independent minister for health. He has been a political columnist with “CityNews” since 2006.