“The indies are going to do very well. They will hold the balance of power. But after talking so big on change, do they support Labor or make Lee chief minister?” Political columnist ANDREW HUGHES calls the October 19 card. 

First, thanks, to the 149 candidates running in this election. Our democracy is only as strong as those willing to take a stand and run for office. 

Regardless of their views, they all want to make our lives better in this great city we all call home. Good luck to you all. 

Next, thanks to everyone who during the campaign reached out to me. Including several candidates. And, yes, I even had someone hit me up on the coffee deal! Great chat that was, too! Comment was fair and, in one case, forthright but respectful. 

Okay, to the serious stuff. Prediction time. Time to be either seen as the Einstein of Elections or the Egghead of Elections. So here goes. 

The leaders

I was on the expert panel for the leader’s debate. What I saw was the three parliamentary leaders of their respective parties who were exhausted but passionate about Canberra.

But then there was Tom. Independents for Canberra leader Tom Emerson/James Bond/Jack Ryan. Looking like he’d just stepped out of the pages of a Tom Clancy novel, but instead with a trusty iPad Pro and broad aspirational policies as his sidearms. 

It showed the energy you have and need to enter politics as a leader, yet the other three show just how much the job takes from you. He and his independents will do well, but need to take note of how important balance is becoming in office. 

Elizabeth Lee was never given a fair chance considering the internal party turmoil and will be wondering “if only” for a long time. With the conservative faction, and biggest vote gainers for the Liberals quiet or removed, there were spurts of momentum but never quite the spark. 

She should have used deputy Leanne Castley earlier and with more profile earlier in the campaign. If anything it is Castley who represents the chance for the Liberals to maybe rebuild for 2028 if things go bad come October 19. 

Andrew Barr was again rock solid this campaign but not rock star. Labor needs to have aspirational leaders. For themselves and for us. He has done a good job as leader. And that’s being fair. But the fatigue is there, the hardness emerging and it is time for new energy and aspirations. Who? Likely Chris Steel on logic, but for pure emotion and potential it’s Tara Cheyne. Getting better and better with each promotion. 

Shane Rattenbury is Barr-like – solid as a eucalyptus regnans in the River Styx. And just as aged in his environment. Like a regnans he was far too head-and-shoulders above others in The Greens this campaign, and saying you are “fresh and new” just showed disconnect and not smart. His legacy is already impressive for the party, even nationally. 

But it’s time for the future as well. Logic and choice will mean it’s likely to be Rebecca Vassarotti, even if she is defeated on election night. The Greens need to go Gen Y or Z and refresh because the indies are chasing their centre left. 

The campaigns

I’ve covered this already in an earlier piece, but going neg just doesn’t say that much about your own achievements. Labor and Liberals, looking at you here. 

Policy depth and communication by all parties was very meh. No wonder so few know the names of our leaders beyond the Chief Minister. They were largely basic, ACT playbook, stuff. Even the implicit references to other marketing campaigns. Campaigns need to provide more aspiration and depth, and less corflutes. Just saying. 

Best campaign this election? The indies, just fresh, although lack of depth is okay in the honeymoon election, but not thereafter. 

The outcome

Did you skip here without reading everything before? Okay, okay, fair enough. All three leaders don’t have the appeal they need to take the top prize solely. 

They also look tired and face their own internal dramas in times ahead, blunting momentum, but more importantly trust by the electorate. 

Labor has ignored too many messages on the need for change – leader, policy, accountability and campaigning. 

The Liberals internal disunity, so publicly on full display with accompanying videos, along with patchy comms, means they never flicked the switch on the opportunity just sitting there. 

The Greens need to understand that people see them, rightly so, as the government now. You were part of bad things but yet nada on the accountability side. Great to be a renters party but the environment matters a lot in this town, too. They will lose the most of any party at the next election because we see them as being the biggest let down on trust and accountability in government. 

Finally the indies. They are going to do very well. The fact that so many are running shows the discontent around the other three. They will, I believe, hold the balance of power. But after talking so big on change, do they support Labor or perhaps make Lee chief minister? 

The emerging theme for 2024 seems to be Believe. The indies do, but do we about their messages of change when it comes to who they pick to govern. Only Tom, and time, will tell. 

 Dr Andrew Hughes is a lecturer in marketing with the Research School of Management at ANU where he specialises in political marketing and advertising.