By Andrew Brown in Canberra

The Liberal National Party’s victory at the Queensland election has laid the groundwork for the coalition to replicate the feat at the next federal poll, the opposition leader says.

After nine years of Labor rule, the LNP recorded a narrow victory in the Sunshine State, with leader David Crisafulli set be sworn in as the state’s next premier.

With counting still under way, the LNP is on track to win at least 48 seats in the state’s parliament, with 47 needed for a majority.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton said the result represented a repudiation of the federal government ahead of the next election, which is due to be held by May.

“The lessons are that if you treat people with contempt, if you run up huge debt, you mismanage the economy, you create a cost-of-living crisis, you can expect the electorate to punish you,” he told reporters in Melbourne on Monday.

“That’s exactly what happened in Queensland, I think it’s what’s going to happen in a federal level as well, because the prime minister has promised a lot for Australians and he’s delivered nothing.”

While the LNP was forecast to record a landslide victory, Labor regained ground as the formal campaign went on.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Labor would heed the results from the party’s defeat ahead of the federal election.

“The outcome on Saturday night was decisive, but it wasn’t unexpected, and there are lessons for us,” he told reporters in Canberra on Monday.

“Queenslanders are pragmatic and practical people, and the Albanese government is a pragmatic and practical government, but we will go through the lessons from Saturday night.”

Federal Labor is looking to regain ground in Queensland at the next federal election, with the government only holding just five of the state’s 30 electorates.

Dr Chalmers said it was not surprising there had been a change of government, with Labor being in power in the Sunshine State for nine years and cost-of-living dominating discussion.

“We understand that people are doing it tough, and they express that at the ballot box, which is their right,” he said.

“We’ve tried to take a series of well-informed economic decisions, take the right economic decisions for the right reasons, because I believe if you do that, the politics will take care of themselves.”

Queensland senator and Workplace Minister Murray Watt said the factor of time was against Labor

“What (former premier Steven Miles) and Labor were seeking was a fourth term in office, and obviously, every election you win, the next one becomes that much harder,” he told ABC Radio.

The Greens went backwards at the election, claiming just a single seat in the state’s parliament.

Greens leader Adam Bandt said the federal government needed to take responsibility for Queensland Labor’s loss.

“If it was all about what’s happening federally, then clearly (Prime Minister Anthony Albanese) has got some responsibility for the fact that Labor has now just lost government,” he told ABC Radio.

“If Labor takes the Greens policies and implements them, they’re popular, but if Labor spends their time and money fighting the Greens, then the LNP wins.”

Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek said the Greens going backwards at the state election came from perceptions about the party federally.

“They were shocked by (Greens MP) Max Chandler-Mather standing up, defending the criminal elements off the CFMEU on the back of the truck with a megaphone instead of voting for housing,” she told Seven’s Sunrise program.

“People look at that and go ‘these people aren’t serious about making progress. They are only about opposition. They’re only about making a point’.”

Queensland’s election offers lessons for everyone