An agency that waits will not simply run short of staff. It will own systems nobody knows how to run, a system ripe for AI intervention.
“Over the next five years the jobs forecast is for 500 new entrants through digital graduate programs and traineeships but with 1800 retirements. That will create a gap of 8190 digital government staff by 2030,” say ALEX KOVACESKI & RICHARD CALVER.
Australia cannot staff its own IT security. More than half of Commonwealth agencies report critical cyber security skills shortages in their workforce, and the plan meant to fix it sets no headcount target.
Adding to this problem, domestic applications for information technology degrees fell 11 per cent in 2025, the first fall since 2012.
It seems that people believe the reason for what has become a real problem is the upsurge in artificial intelligence.
In a survey of 1029 Australians aged 15 to 24 in 2026, 63 per cent said AI would eliminate roles with only 2 per cent saying it would create them.
The official data seems to back up these conclusions as technology occupations have left the national shortage list, and advertised vacancies for ICT professionals fell 49 per cent between 2021-22 and 2024-25. But the easing is not uniform, and there is a division between the sorts of IT skills in demand and those in decline.
The Future Skills Organisation, a government-funded jobs and skills council, says Australia will be short of people running, connecting and securing systems and oversupplied with those who build and test them.
Security and infrastructure work scores high on generative AI augmentation and only moderately on automation, which means AI speeds that work up rather than replacing it.
The problem starts with hiring practices. The Department of Home Affairs admits the problem. Department of Education data shows cyber security graduates struggle to land their first cyber job.
The research behind it found very few federal government departments actually hiring entry level roles with demand concentrated in senior technical roles.
Only 1 per cent of surveyed technology employers rated higher education graduates as job ready in 2024, down from 3 per cent in 2023.
Trends in graduate completions also appear to be problematic. Of 35,728 information technology completions in 2024, 24,113 were obtained by overseas students, a figure of 67.5 per cent.
A security clearance requires Australian citizenship as a starting point. The Digital Transformation Agency states the consequence plainly: only 38 per cent of course completions come from domestic students. International graduates are ineligible for APS roles unless they hold citizenship. This trend is likely to continue as year 12 participation in technology courses was down from 35.8 per cent in 2012 to 27.9 per cent in 2024.
The agency’s 2025 APS digital workforce report shows that while the number of young people entering the IT professions is declining, the older workforce is also declining.
The median age group is 40 to 44 and so 20.8 per cent will reach retirement age by 2030. Over the next five years the jobs forecast is for 500 new entrants through digital graduate programs and traineeships but with 1800 retirements. This trend will create a projected gap of 8190 digital government staff by 2030.
Buying the human capability via independent contractors is not a long-term solution. The agency’s report also says continued reliance on contractors is not sustainable and that the APS won’t be able to rely on the market to secure its digital workforce requirements.
Hays, a large recruitment firm, finds only 6 per cent of the ICT contract market comprises personnel at graduate or entry level while 40 per cent is at management level, so the pool appears to be the senior cohort that is due to retire.
Without the infusion of new talent, the consequences for the government and citizens are profound.
A capability review of Services Australia found the agency runs the largest mainframe system in the APS and one of the largest in the world, supporting $241 billion in payments a year, and that their upkeep relies heavily on staff nearing retirement.
An agency that waits will not simply run short of staff. It will own systems nobody knows how to run, a system ripe for AI intervention.
Dr Alex Kovaceski is an AI strategist and Richard Calver an industrial relations lawyer.
"The latest political spin presents the Albanese government as leaders in managing the new Digital Age. But the sad truth is that this government, when given the ball, kicked it into the long grass," writes HUGH SELBY.
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