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Early election speculation gets the brush off

Does an interest rate cut point to an early election? Jim Chalmers doesn’t seem to think so. (Lukas Coch/AAP PHOTOS)

By Kat Wong in Canberra

Australians voters and politicians are breathing sighs of relief after the central bank cut interest rates, but cabinet ministers have batted away suggestions this has smoothed the path to an early election.

Election date theorists believe the Reserve Bank’s decision to bring down the cash rate could provide enough momentum to turn the political tides in Labor’s favour and inspire the federal government to call a vote before its May deadline.

Speculation has tended to favour a mid-April date as this would also avoid public holidays and prevent parliament from holding another sitting period.

However, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has brushed off the suggestions, noting his staff were preparing for a federal budget, scheduled for March.

“My job is to obsess over what’s happening in the economy, the prime minister will work out the election date – it will be at some point in the next three months,” he told the Today show on Wednesday.

“We know that people are still under pressure, and that’s why, if we can do more in a responsible way of course, we will consider doing more.”

The RBA is due to hand down another rates decision at the beginning of April, but governor Michele Bullock has all but ruled out another cut before the election as the central bank would need to assess quarterly inflation data, which won’t be published before its next meeting.

It’s unclear what impact this could have on the election, but Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australians deserved financial relief, though it may not be instantly felt.

“What you cannot do is have an election on May 17, and things change on May 18,” he told ABC radio.

“We understand that Australians are doing it tough, that we’ve had COVID crisis with all the shutdowns and wind back of the economy that occurred, and then we’ve had global inflation have an impact – not just here – but right around the world.

“But under Labor, inflation is down, wages are up, unemployment is low, and now interest rates have started to come down.”

For many households, the rate cut has been “too little, too late”, shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said.

“Australian families have had to cut back on their spending, take on extra jobs, in some cases, extra hours to make ends meet,” he told Sky News.

“The hard work is being done by households when the hard work should have been done by the government.”

Mr Albanese is hoping to court voters with both his economic record and his personal life, spruiking his wedding plans in the post-rates decision glow as Women’s Weekly published a photo collection of the soon-to-be married couple.

He confirmed his nuptials would take place in the second half of the year, after an election.

Ready, set… when will Albanese say go?

 

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2 Responses to Early election speculation gets the brush off

cbrapsycho says: 19 February 2025 at 11:21 am

Labor can’t be that obvious as to call an election immediately after a rate cut. Besides, they still have lot of work to do to convince people that they’re worth having in Parliament.

They need to sell themselves, show what they’ve achieved and hopefully commit to some other important things on integrity and whistle-blowing, climate and environment, to make up for what they’ve failed to do as well as those areas where they’ve let us down.

Collaborating with the LNP to hobble future independents shows they’re running scared.

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David says: 19 February 2025 at 3:57 pm

“But under Labor, inflation is down, wages are up, unemployment is low, and now interest rates have started to come down.” and the rest. House prices keep going up, rents keep going up, costs are up, something must be going down. Oh, that’s the average worker’s optimism that things will improve. What used to be the heart of Labor’s support.

Wages are up but not enough to counter everything else. Unemployment is low because people have to work so much and so many jobs just to keep afloat. It’s a very poor scorecard given the opportunities they had when they came into office.

We don’t want an economy that relies on low interest rates because everyone has to be in so much debt. The government citing interest rates is a failure within itself.

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