There are 25 seats up for grabs in the October 17 ACT election and there is one seat in each of the five electorates of five members that will effectively decide the election –  the fifth seat. In a series of articles, political reporter BELINDA STRAHORN will analyse the fate of each of the “fifth seats”. Here we look at Brindabella.

THE five-member, five electorates of Brindabella (Tuggeranong), Murrumbidgee (Woden-Weston), Kurrajong (the inner south and inner north), Yerrabi (Gungahlin) and Ginninderra (Belconnen), will almost certainly return a minimum of two Labor and two Liberal politicians each, with the final seat in each of the five electorates up for grabs. 

These are the seats that will decide the election and where the minor parties and independents are resting their hopes. The reality is their chances are slender; and other than probably the Greens, it’s unlikely they will get a quota in their own right, but it’s not impossible. 

You don’t need to be a political expert to predict that almost certainly the Liberals will hold at least 10 seats in the chamber, Labor would equally be confident of holding 10 seats and the Greens will hold one.  

The Liberals are seemingly well placed to win three seats again in the southern suburbs district of Brindabella (three Liberal, two Labor), where the Liberals enjoy a large concentration of support. So, this gives the Liberals the prospect of a minimum of 11 seats. It’s likely that Greens leader Shane Rattenbury will hold on to the fifth seat in Kurrajong (two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens). In the final shakedown, it may be Rattenbury’s support that keeps Labor in power. After all, he’s done this for two terms and served as a cabinet minister in the latest Barr government.

What do the experts say?

Former Chief Minister and “CityNews” columnist Jon Stanhope, the only ACT Chief Minister to have governed with a majority in the Assembly, believes you can “almost” certainly call 22 of the 25 seats right now. “Twenty of the 25 seats can be assumed based on history, it’s not always been thus, but there’s been a change in the last 10 to 15 years where Labor and the Liberals have tended to win two seats in each [electorate],” he said.

“I can’t see why there would be a change in Brindabella and I don’t believe there will be a change in Kurrajong, so in my assessment the three seats that will be of most interest – and I think this is the case with all three parties – are Murrumbidgee, Ginninderra and Gungahlin [Yerrabi].”

If Stanhope’s spot on, the election battleground will effectively be fought in three key electorates; the crucial southern electorate of Murrumbidgee; Canberra’s northern most electorate of Yerrabi and the Belconnen-based electorate of Ginninderra; each will play a critical role in deciding which party wins office.

The Liberals’ stronghold 

It’s likely there’ll be no change to the sea of Liberal blue that dominates Canberra’s southernmost electorate. The Liberals have three seats in Brindabella represented by MLAs Mark Parton, Andrew Wall and Nicole Lawder, all of whom sit on the Liberals’ front bench, with Ms Lawder the party’s deputy leader. The Liberals will need to hold these three seats – and pick up two more seats elsewhere – to realise Liberal leader Alistair Coe’s ambition to form a majority government.

The other two seats in Brindabella belong to a couple of veteran ACT Labor politicians, Planning Minister Mick Gentleman and Assembly Speaker Joy Burch. While it would be difficult to unseat these two seasoned Labor stalwarts, ACT Labor candidate Taimus Werner-Gibbings’ chances should not be overlooked or dismissed lightly. 

Labor’s wild card

Werner-Gibbings, a former staffer for the member for Fenner Andrew Leigh, has run before, you might remember his dapper mugshot on posters stuck around the territory at the 2016 ACT election. In his favour, Labor’s “glamour” candidate dominated the preselection vote among Labor members and achieved 0.4 of a quota, some 700-800 votes behind Burch and Gentleman.

Former independent member of the ACT Legislative Assembly and “City News” columnist Michael Moore believes Werner-Gibbings is “in with a chance” if he campaigns well. 

“The best example of this is that nobody had heard of Alistair Coe and he got into an electorate where nobody was an outstanding candidate,” said Moore.

“It really comes down to the campaigning because Labor will get a fairly evenly distributed vote, so Werner-Gibbings has just got to campaign better than one of them and he’s got a chance”. 

The Labor hopeful campaigned well last election, covering a lot of ground through traditional door knocking, while the humble door knock may not be at his disposal this year thanks to COVID-19, Moore argues that the nature of the Hare-Clark system could play into Werber-Gibbings’ favour.

“If you want to vote Labor, but you think Labor’s on the nose, you don’t vote for a minister you look for someone else to vote for and the advantage of Hare Clark is that you can punish the incumbent and still have the party you prefer, so there’s an advantage to him [Werner-Gibbings] there.”

In a less likely scenario should Werner-Gibbings significantly increase Labor’s share of the vote in Brindabella, then Moore argues the fifth seat could change hands, but concedes it’s unlikely.  

“There is a chance that Labor could lift a seat there, it’s the fifth seat and it’s vulnerable and you cannot underestimate the campaigning capacity of Labor so that seat is still up for grabs and will depend how well they campaign. But I do think that the Liberals will maintain three seats in Brindabella.”

Drawing on his personal experience of contesting his first ACT election, Stanhope also makes the observation that non-sitting candidates have a chance, if they work hard.

“It’s rare that a non-sitting candidate is successful over a sitting and well-established candidate, but it is do-able,” he said.

“The profile that incumbency brings is a massive advantage to sitting members seeking re-election. But if there is a good, youngish, energetic candidate with roots in the community who is working his guts out and has a commitment to Labor principles, then they would present a real danger to Joy Burch and Mick Gentleman.”

Unless the mood of the electorate changes dramatically in the coming months, there’s not much chance the Labor Party vote will improve in Brindabella and it’s reasonable to assume that the Liberals will hang on to the fifth and final seat in Brindabella. 

“In the last few elections the Liberals have been very strong in Tuggeranong and I can’t see that anything has changed to the point that the Labor Party vote will improve,” Stanhope said.

“I haven’t seen any evidence of a high-profile independent in Tuggeranong, although one might emerge, but at this stage it is reasonable to assume that the Liberal Party would be quite confident that they would hold three.”

As with any election there are surprise results and upsets in the making, and this election will be no different.

BRINDABELLA 

 Profile: A five-member electorate comprising the district of Tuggeranong (excluding the section of the Tuggeranong suburb of Kambah that is east of Drakeford Drive, and that portion of Tuggeranong district between Drakeford Drive and Athllon Drive) and the districts of Booth, Cotter River, Paddys River, Rendezvous Creek, Tennent and Mount Clear. 

 The name “Brindabella” is derived from an Aboriginal word meaning “two kangaroo rats”. 

Town centre: Tuggeranong 

Suburbs:  Wanniassa, Williamsdale, Tuggeranong, Tuggeranong District South, Tharwa, Tennent District, Royalla, Rendezvous Creek District, Paddys River District, Mount Clear District, Melrose Valley, Fadden, Macarthur, Gilmore, Chisholm, Richardson, Calwell, Conder, Theodore, Banks, Gordon, Isabella Plains, Bonython, Gowrie, Monash, Oxley, Cotter Dam, Booth District, Greenway and Kambah (the portion of Kambah that is west of Drakeford Drive).

Last result: Liberals 41.9% Labor 33.6% Greens 5.1% 

MLAs: ACT Labor’s Joy Burch and Mick Gentleman. Canberra Liberals Nicole Lawder, Mark Parton and Andrew Wall. 

Other candidates: Cathy Day, Brendan Forde and Taimus Werner-Gibbings are ACT Labor candidates. The Canberra Liberals have Jane Hiatt and James Daniels, and the Greens have fielded Jonathan Davis, Laura Nuttall and Sue Ellerman. Federation Party candidates are Jason Potter and Scott Sandford. Other minor parties are yet to announce their candidates.

FIFTH SEAT PREDICTION

Won by Mark Parton, a late candidate in 2016 after former opposition leader Brendan Smyth was wooed into the ACT public service just ahead of the last election. 

There is a chance, given her subdued performance as Liberal deputy leader, that Nicole Lawder’s seat could be at risk from Labor’s action man Taimus Werner-Gibbings, but we think Mick Gentleman and Joy Burch may have more to fear from him in holding their seats. Liberal Mark Parton has worked hard to build his profile and the “CityNews” view is that the Liberals will hang on to the fifth seat.