THE Nationals are likely to retain the state-seat of Monaro despite a two-party preferred 7.7 per cent swing against them at Saturday’s (February 12) by-election.

Just after 8pm on Saturday, Nationals candidate Nichole Overall was comfortably in front of her Labor opponent Bryce Wilson on first-preference votes.

With a little more than 25 per cent of the vote counted, the Nationals had secured 46.6 per cent of the vote to Labor’s 32.7 per cent. Greens candidate Catherine Moore secured some 7.9 per cent of the vote.

Based on current projections the Nationals should retain the seat on a two-party preferred margin of 53.9 per cent to Labor’s 46.1 per cent.

There are, however, in excess of some 5000 postal votes and 12,000 pre-poll votes still to be counted.

Saturday’s by-election was triggered by the resignation from the NSW Parliament of former Nationals Leader and Deputy Premier John Barilaro, who held the seat of Monaro for almost a decade.

Ms Overall – a Queanbeyan-based author, historian and journalist – is set to be the first woman member of Monaro in its 165-year history. She said the campaign had been a “tough fight”.

“By-elections always are and with the postal ballots going out to every household it’s a difficult thing to predict,” Ms Overall said.

Along with Monaro, voters have gone to the polls in Bega and the Sydney seats of Strathfield and Willoughby.

Bega – the once Liberal stronghold – looks set to be won by Labor; Labor looks set to hold the seat of Strathfield and the Liberals have held the seat of Willoughby.