By Dominic Giannini and Paul Osborne in Canberra

PRIME Minister Anthony Albanese says anything less than a “massive majority” in the Aston by-election would be a blow to the Liberals.

Melbourne barrister and councillor Roshena Campbell is widely expected to win Saturday’s by-election, retaining the seat for the Liberals vacated by former minister Alan Tudge.

Mr Albanese said history showed by-elections swung against sitting federal Labor governments by five to six per cent, and no government has won a by-election off an opposition in more than 100 years.

“The Liberals should retain Aston with a massive majority,” he told reporters in Brisbane on Friday.

“The fact that the Liberal Party are having to spend so much money, and they have massively out-spent Labor in this by-election, in order to hang on to one of their heartland seats says everything about the state of the Liberal Party brand.”

Mr Albanese said a key factor in the erosion of the Liberal branch was federal leader Peter Dutton, who he compared to a Winnie-the-Pooh character.

“Federally, they just sit there and vote no to everything,” he said, noting a number of government wins on legislation during the parliamentary sitting fortnight.

“They are the Eeyores of Australian politics and Peter Dutton is the angry Eeyore – he just sits there ‘woe is me, the sky is falling in’, every time an initiative is put forward.”

Labor’s candidate, Mary Doyle, is a former union organiser and cancer survivor who also contested the 2022 federal election.

Mr Dutton, who campaigned in the seat in Melbourne’s east with Ms Campbell on Friday, said he expected the result to be tight but his party should retain it.

The Liberals hold the seat on a 2.8 per cent margin after a massive swing against the party at the 2022 election.

“Every decision Labor has taken economically over the course of the last 10 months has driven up the cost of living pressures on families and on small businesses,” Mr Dutton said.

“There’s an opportunity here to send a message to Labor, that it’s just not good enough because living pressures continue to go up.”
Ms Campbell is hoping her experience as a barrister and Melbourne City councillor will position her to win the seat.

“They (Labor) have shown they are happy to take the outer east for granted,” she said.

Mr Albanese said Ms Doyle would be a strong voice in government if elected.

The Australian Electoral Commission is concerned about a possible low voter turnout, given the lower than expected interest in early voting.

Experts have suggested voters in the seat have “election fatigue”, having been to the polls in May and November for federal and state elections.

Other candidates for the seat are project manager Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), software engineer Owen Miller (Fusion) and libertarian advocate Maya Tesa (independent).