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How Auckland belies the missing middle myth 

The “curious” mix of dual or tri-occupancies, townhouses and terrace homes and low-rise apartments in the Draft Missing Middle Housing Design Guide.

In its submission on missing middle housing reform, the Inner South Canberra Community Council proposes that, rather than a one-size-fits-all planning policy for the entire RZ1 zone, a more sensitive and nuanced planned approach should be applied, writes RICHARD JOHNSTON. 

The ACT government’s Missing Middle Housing Reform involves “upzoning” (greatly increasing the potential housing densities) of all residential zones to reduce the need for the city to expand outwards as it grows.

Richard Johnston.

It particularly affects the RZ1 Suburban Zone, which  covers nearly 70 per cent of Canberra’s urban area. 

In figure 71 of the 134-page Draft Missing Middle Housing Design Guide shows what the government expects RZ1 streetscapes to look like – a curious mix of “dual or tri-occupancies, townhouses and terrace homes and low-rise apartments”. 

Proponents of these intentions point to the supposed success of a similar program in Auckland some years ago.  The Auckland Unitary Plan (AUP), introduced in 2016, allowed urban “intensification” across “many established suburbs and some greenfields areas”. 

This was said to have led to a substantial increase in “dwellings consented”. However, according to the Auckland Future Development Strategy Monitoring report December 2024, covering the five years 2019/20 to 2023/24, the “dwellings consented” per year were lower at the end of that period than at the beginning, peaking in 2021/22.

The Auckland Myth: There is no Evidence that Upzoning Increased Housing Construction, by Murray & Helm, in Fresh Economic Thinking, June, 2023, showed there was actually no real change in the upward trend of total dwelling consents in Auckland from about 2012/13 to 2020/21. 

They said: “Auckland’s consent trend, like Wellington’s, looks a lot like a growth cycle spurred by an uptick in migration around 2014, and a normal cyclical boom, one also seen in Australia’s major cities following the post-GFC recovery period.”

Murray & Helm also noted that net additional dwellings completed and connected to electricity two years after approvals were only 69  per cent of consents since 2020.

They say: “We agree that more homes are better than fewer, but good planning matters too. 

“Organising the location and types of dwellings can reduce total infrastructure costs and avoid social costs that cause a net loss of utility.

“The disorderly nature of where post-AUP development occurred is hated even by the most strident supporters of the policy now living through it.”

The Auckland Council’s monitoring report also noted, for 2023/24: “Consenting activity continuing to concentrate in the outer suburbs… with less occurring in the city centre and inner suburbs”.

No doubt this would be due to developers taking advantage of lower land values in outer suburbs, not necessarily where people wanted to live.

The greatest proportion of consents (around 60 per cent) since 2020/21 were townhouses, flats, units and other dwellings (rather than houses or apartment units) perhaps reflecting building costs as well as market demand.

Unlike the ACT government’s intentions, the AUP retained an H3: Residential – Single House Zone. Its purpose “is to maintain and enhance the amenity values of established residential neighbourhoods in a number of locations. 

“The particular amenity values of a neighbourhood may be based on special character informed by the past, spacious sites with some large trees, a coastal setting or other factors such as established neighbourhood character.

“To support the purpose of the zone, multi-unit development is not anticipated, with additional housing limited to the conversion of an existing dwelling into two dwellings and minor dwelling units. The zone is generally characterised by one to two-storey high buildings consistent with a suburban built character.”

In its submission on missing middle housing reform, the Inner South Canberra Community Council proposes that, rather than a one-size-fits-all planning policy for the entire RZ1 zone, a more sensitive and nuanced planned approach should be applied, including:

  • Special Character Zones to protect particular high-quality residential areas, including heritage housing precincts, similar to the Auckland Single House Zone.
  • Consolidation of existing house blocks to encourage more efficient and higher quality redevelopment, with more dwellings in higher amenity settings including open space and trees – for example, a minimum of four adjoining blocks, with a development plan to be negotiated with stakeholders and potentially subject to a fast-tracked approval process. Block consolidation could be achieved in a number of ways: through a collaborative housing model involving the existing owners directly; by private developers; or by a government redevelopment agency charged with assembling and packaging projects in appropriate locations for on-sale to developers.

Richard Johnston is an architect and town planner, and formerly a senior executive in the ACT Planning and Land Authority. He is a life fellow of the Planning Institute of Australia.

 

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9 Responses to How Auckland belies the missing middle myth 

Richard Johnston says: 31 July 2025 at 10:38 am

Eben Leaf is, I understand, a member of the ‘Greater Canberra’ group strongly lobbying the ACT government for much more housing in established areas, regardless of environmental and social consequences. I have seen other academic comment on the Murray & Helm paper and the differences of view seem to come down to fairly abstruse arguments about econometric techniques. I’m happy to continue to rely on the Auckland Council’s own Monitoring Report which shows that numbers of dwelling ‘consents’ went up but then down again in the last 5 years and most of the development activity was in outer areas. This does not demonstrate anything other than ‘upzoning’ may have a short-term stimulus effect but not necessarily in desired locations, in the absence of effective strategic planning.

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Eben says: 31 July 2025 at 11:55 am

The research you relied on was a blog post from Murray, which was not academic or peer rsviews, and which claimed the findings from the studies proving upzoning had a positive effect were incorrect because they excluded certain areas of Auckland. Except the areas that were excepted from the study had already been upzoned and also showed massive increases in housing. This isn’t abstract economic differences, this is actual methodology flaws in Murrays blog post.

The actual evidence from Auckland including the latest studies from this year show its had a long term impact on improving affordability. Dwelling consents remain significantly above pre-upzoning levels and ahead of the remainder of NZ. Auckland went from experencing the fastest growing rents in NZ to the slowest, and rents werw 28% lower than in the none upzonning alternative. The evidence from Auckland simply confirms what is a common finding in the economic literature that is accepted by a large majority of economists. Upzoning delivers more homes.

Building denser housing in established areas is better for the environment and socially for our city but given you are trying to use debunked evidence to make your points your credibility in doing anything other than trying to keep people out of your exclusive suburbs is poor.

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MSD says: 31 July 2025 at 4:37 pm

“the Inner South Canberra Community Council proposes that, rather than a one-size-fits-all planning policy for the entire RZ1 zone, a more sensitive and nuanced planned approach” Translation “despite the housing crisis, we are rich people and we don’t want riff raff that can’t afford large, free standing properties near us; let the densification areas be where poor people live’. This is the classic, predictable and thinly veiled elitist response used the world over.

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MSD says: 31 July 2025 at 4:43 pm

People have nowhere to live and the sprawl is damaging the environment but oh won’t someone please think of the property values in the inner south!

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Richard Johnston says: 31 July 2025 at 5:19 pm

Actually, MSD (whoever you are) I and colleagues live in apartments in the densest developed parts of Canberra. Kingston was 90% apartments at the last Census. Get your facts right.

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David says: 31 July 2025 at 7:09 pm

It’s a bit rich to tell people to get their facts right when you use debunked blog posts as your sources. Given the majority of the inner south is detached homes by land area, I would say significantly more apartments should be there.

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Richard Johnston says: 31 July 2025 at 8:53 pm

I have already responded to Eben Leaf’s claim that a certain NZ academic’s analysis has been ‘debunked’ by other NZ academics. That wouldn’t be an unusual situation for anyone familiar with academics. More importantly, no-one has refuted what I have said about Auckland City Council’s own analysis. End of lovely chat, thanks guys.

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David says: 1 August 2025 at 9:14 am

Your response was lacklustre and incorrect. Anyone familiar with academics would know that a peer review academic paper is worth far more than a blog post, especially when the blog posts analysis was based on incorrect assumptions that were already dealt with in the paper it tried to critise Additionally Auckland City Councils analysis shows consents remain higher than before the upzoning even after stabilising. Averaging 3.5-4k a quarter compared to 2k before hand. So even relying on their data you are wrong.

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