“I do not believe that Trump will be successful in his attack on American democracy. The resistance is too deeply ingrained in the American psyche for a phony Wizard of Oz to prevail,” writes Gadfly columnist ROBERT MACKLIN. 

Last year, as Donald Trump took the lead in the presidential race, I penned a column noting that a win for the MAGA man was not necessarily a bad thing. 

When his outlandish economic and foreign policies confronted reality, I wrote, it would be an experiment in real time. They might just work. But if they failed, then the result would be available to the rest of the world… and maybe even to Trump himself.

What I didn’t expect was just how quickly we’d get that result. Gaza rebuilt as a giant Club Med, Ukraine as a card game and Greenland for sale were bad enough. But his Mad Hatter acts with the Tariff as some kind of magic wand was hilarious. 

There were so many changes to the countries, the rates, the industry exemptions and even the creatures (of Heard Island) to be taxed that the whole world stared open-mouthed.

Economists buried their faces in their hands to staunch the tears of laughter or despair. National leaders protested or kow-towed but only Canada and China fought back. 

In the end play, there can only be one winner. In simple terms that battle is already over – Trump is still living in the 1970s with his concentration on old-fashioned power generation and manufacturing… even to the point of boosting the coal industry, which is fading everywhere else.

China by contrast has taken a leap into the future with renewable energy, electric batteries, robots, artificial intelligence, EVs and autonomous driving cars. And while Trump is spreading raw protectionism, China is favouring the globalisation of trade with as few impediments as possible.

In short, Trump is the herald of stagflation while President Xi offers the kind of prosperity we’ve enjoyed in the decades since World War II and a prospect of escaping the worst effects of existential climate change.

Where does that leave Australia? Do we really have to choose between the economic prosperity offered by China and a fair chance of a bearable climate, or the reassurance of the ANZUS Treaty from Donald J Trump? 

Ah, if only it were that simple. America used to be democracy’s light on the hill. But Trump is turning it into an autocracy just as fast as his little fingers can write executive orders. So what happens in the next few years when Australia’s Defence Department reckons Xi Jinping will make his move to restore the Taiwan province to Beijing’s control? 

Would Trump really go to war to save it for “democracy”? Or American autocracy?

Would we? And if so what kind of war would that be?

The opening salvo would not be a bomb, but rather the sudden loss of power Australia-wide. I have no idea what would follow but whatever it is, it would be horrific.

However, there is a bright side to contemplate. I do not believe that Trump will be successful in his attack on American democracy. The resistance is too deeply ingrained in the American psyche for a phony Wizard of Oz to prevail. It might be a near-run contest, but I believe there are many more sane people in the US than those of unsound mind.

Either way, the conjunction of events makes clear the underlying lesson for Australia, one that we have resisted throughout our entire existence: the assertion of true nationhood, with the embrace of our Aboriginal forebears, the declaration of a republic, and the recognition of our geographical strength through genuine independence.

robert@robertmacklin.com