“While Labor kept all of their lower house seats, the Senate first preferences tell a different story and reveal that there is more happening in the burbs of the Berra,” writes political columnist ANDREW HUGHES.

Now most of the dust has settled from election 2025, and with the benefit of some hindsight, it’s a good time to look at what happened in the federal seats here in the ACT. 

And there are some surprises and some, yeah, well, we-didn’t-listen moments. 

The parties

People lie, numbers don’t, so let’s dig straight into the numbers. We’ll focus on first preference votes because that’s really where the action is. Why? Because this is who we wanted to see elected first. I’ve highlighted the leading party in yellow. 

First to the overall House and Senate vote here in the ACT since 2019. 

I’m sure you, like me, have seen some of the very interesting trends this data picks up. And reinforcement of the norm. 

To the expected. Labor in the House of Reps in Canberra in 2025 actually got their primary to the highest level this decade. On a 2PP level it was glory days of 72.4 per cent. Correlation to the Voice result, you say? Well the numbers are the same, but correlation does not equate to the same people behaving the same way, right Coalition? 

Though see how broader analysis can obscure what may be happening at a more local level. You would think on those numbers we are a true Labor town. But no, we are actually far more diverse than that. Take the seat of Bean. 

The slow burn and very street-smart campaign of Jessie Price took everyone, including me (sorry, Jessie!) by surprise. With a 26.4 per cent primary vote she came 700 votes shy of knocking off David Smith who had a primary of 41 per cent (essentially the same number as 2022). Jessie Price was second on primary to David Smith in a virtual majority of booths, yet the Libs finished last in some. 

For the Liberal Party it was ugly. The silver lining to the cloud were some of their candidates who kept up the enthusiasm in the face of the tsunami against the party. Will Roche was very solid, and David Lamerton’s creative corflute in Bean had it a prime collectible by local teens. 

While Labor kept all of their lower house seats, the Senate first preferences tell a different story and reveal that there is more happening in the burbs of the Berra. 

That is the Pocock wave continued. Labor did not get a quota in 2025 and had to go to preferences to get Katy Gallagher re-elected. Looking at the Senate table reveals who David Pocock is getting votes from, and it is basically everyone, but main contributors are the Liberals and the Greens. 

And that means things are about to get real at the next election because that perhaps indicates a softening in identification in Canberra towards the established parties. I expect to see that trend continue in the lower house far more in 2028, both ACT and federal elections. 

Candidates

For mine, Jessie Price ran the best campaign in Canberra. David Pocock was second, and for a third Labor, but special mention to Hannah Vardy. 

Worst? Numbers don’t lie and the Libs, especially in the Senate, don’t just have hard work to do, but need a complete overhaul and rethink. 

The only bottom in numbers in politics is when you hit zero, and so they can still and will fall if they don’t change and engage. 

Why the Liberals didn’t ask Kacey Lam-Evans to run as their lead candidate in the Senate escapes me. She would have done far better than a 17 per cent primary. 

The independents are the rising force by far in Canberra and with good reason. Why? They reflect us. It isn’t just gender parity, it’s also age parity. From Gen Z (bussin Hannah, real sigma work, no caps!), to the Gen X and over, they show the importance of good candidate selection in the modern era. 

Labor have already worked this out and hence why they do so well locally in the lower house. For now. Renewal is on the cards for some candidates in Labor locally, because the Price was nearly right. Next time it will be. 

Dr Andrew Hughes lectures at the ANU Research School of Management, where he specialises in political marketing