News location:

Thursday, October 8, 2026 | Digital Edition | Crossword & Sudoku

Labor shrugs off claim tax shift will sink house prices

Levelling the playing field for first-home buyers has been a selling point of Labor’s tax reform. (Mick Tsikas/AAP PHOTOS)

By Zac de Silva and Poppy Johnston in Canberra

Contentious changes to taxes on property investments won’t be the main driver of expected falls in prices, the housing minister says.

As auction clearance rates hit lows not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic, Clare O’Neil said it was unclear how much the planned changes to negative gearing and capital gains taxes would drive down values.

She would not guarantee a key measure of housing construction would improve under Labor’s policies.

Levelling the playing field for first home buyers has been a prominent selling point of the government’s tax reform package, but ministers are still putting out fires weeks after announcing the overhaul in the budget.

Asked about suggestions house prices could fall as much as 10 per cent under the plan, which pares back concessions for property investors, Ms O’Neil said the government’s policies were not the main driver of the property market.

“When house prices in our country move, the biggest driver of them is what goes on with interest rates,” she told the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday.

Treasury modelling predicts dwelling prices will continue to rise under the changes, but marginally slower than would otherwise have been the case.

Ms O’Neil gave no guarantees the government’s plan to build more homes would increase dwelling completion rates but insisted her policies would make a positive difference.

“What I can tell you is that government policy is going to lift (the number of homes being built) by 420,000 based off what they would otherwise be,” she said.

The government is reluctant to promise completion rates will increase because the housing market is also affected by factors beyond its control.

Ms O’Neil’s comments come as the proportion of homes successfully sold at auction falls to the lowest level since April 2020, when the pandemic started.

Property research firm Cotality said the auction clearance rate “hit a new cyclical” during the week, falling to a preliminary 54.5 per cent.

The figure is considered a key leading indicator for property prices in the major-city markets and points to a decline in the coming weeks and months.

While analysts believe much of the downturn has been driven by higher interest rates and the broader property price cycle, investors are also likely to back out of the existing homes market as a result of Labor’s changes.

At the same time, the government is attempting to sell its overhaul by pointing out the falling rate of home ownership among young people.

Home ownership rates among 25 to 34-year-olds have fallen faster than for other age groups, sinking seven percentage points from 2001 to 2021.

The combination of the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount – brought in by the Howard coalition government in 1999 – and negative gearing has made housing an enticing investment, the government says, at the expense of owner-occupiers.

Reserve Bank research has also found the proportion of Baby Boomer property investors has climbed sharply since the capital gains discount was introduced, from 12 per cent in 2000 to 28 per cent in 2023.

The share of investors younger than 30 fell from nine per cent to four per cent during the same time.

Under Labor’s changes, the 50 per cent discount will be scrapped and gains adjusted for inflation will be taxed instead, with negative gearing on purchases of existing properties phased out.

Attractive tax treatment will remain open for new builds.

Opposition Leader Angus Taylor labelled the reform package “toxic” and a war on aspiration at a Liberal Party federal council meeting in Melbourne on Saturday.

He promised to repeal the changes if the coalition won power.

News all day, every day at CityNews.com.au.

Who can be trusted?

In a world of spin and confusion, there’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in Canberra.

If you trust our work online and want to enforce the power of independent voices, I invite you to make a small contribution.

Every dollar of support is invested back into our journalism to help keep citynews.com.au strong and free.

Become a supporter

Thank you,

Ian Meikle, editor

Share this

2 Responses to Labor shrugs off claim tax shift will sink house prices

David says: 31 May 2026 at 12:27 pm

Ho hum, like so many articles, this misses the point. The tax changes are to address a real problem that will have a significant long term affect on our economy and how much tax will be needed in the future (or how far our society will degrade if we don’t fix the problem). The question we should be asking about the proposed changes is, will they be enough (a bit like RBA rates decision) or will more need to be done. We need more younger people owning homes, paying taxes and getting off the welfare system for as long as possible in their living years. Having people owning their homes helps and the return to society of people owning their homes is far greater than anything we’ll get from property investors. Property investors are a drain on society in so many ways and the reason is, people need somewhere to live, if they don’t own it then someone has to pay for it and at some point that will be the tax payer. No home owners don’t need shares etc etc so we need to encourage investors to invest in things that aren’t basic requirements that the tax payer will have to provide if private investors corner the market.

The next thing to remember is, young people entering the market should not be forced or incentivized to buy new homes. Think of it like cars, you start with something secondhand you can afford that you don’t pay a premium for and use your own time and skill to keep going/improve. Building lots of new homes only works if you’re freeing up older cheaper homes for the younger generation to get a start in.

Back to the budget debate, Pauline Hanson, has done a wonderful job showing up how pathetic most politic commentators are who focus on the childish broken promises mantra. By proposing a negative gearing limit of two houses per person she has validated the need for some form of tax reform and that a problem exists. A realization that people are more interested in fixing the problem than the childish antics of people calling out broken promises. If Pauline leaves politics she’ll be able to get a job as a politic commentator because there isn’t much competition.

The question is, is two houses per person enough to free up enough houses for the younger oner occupier generation? That question should consider the change by itself, without trust changes, so people will still face cashed up recipients of trust with more money (due to paying less tax) and backed by the tax payer. The fundamental thing Pauline is missing, in terms of aspirations is, why doesn’t every Australian have exactly the same access to tax minimization schemes no matter how they get their money? There is a Robin Hood effect is play. Labor’s approach has been to take lucrative schemes away from the rich as opposed to giving the same access to the poor. Taking away the so called aspirations of the rich (driven by an unfair advantage paying tax) to provide aspirations for the poor. There is an interesting debate to be had about just giving the same access to everyone and how that effects budget bottom line. It is also interesting to note how many chickens there are running around because the sky is falling as their whole life is only viable if they have an unfair access to tax minimization. It’s like someone cheating at cards claiming the game is ruined and they’ve lost their inspiration because you stopped them cheating.

The same question can also be asked of Labor’s plan, is it enough to fix the problem or do we need even more change? That is what we need to focus on and it would help if we had some decent political commentators. This isn’t just a tax grab where the next party can reverse it by reducing government spending. This is about fixing a significant structural problem in the fairness of our tax system which is impacting the aspirations of younger people that will compound as they get older. Start thinking about what the next changes will need to be if these changes aren’t enough. If your scared of losing grandfathering perhaps you need to think about how to make these changes work.

(As an aside the Liberal Party has set itself up and the party for the rich that no self respecting wage earner should vote for. Interesting strategy).

People talk about taking away the aspiration of the young to get wealthy. Well, the first step is to own your own home. While there is a problem with that step, all other wealth discussions are somewhat minor. If I can get into home ownership easier and faster and pay it off faster, you can tax my share gains at 100%.

Reply
David says: 1 June 2026 at 11:40 am

As Adam Kohler has pointed out (can we get him writing articles for this rag?) one of the big challenges is those owner occupiers who felt they were forced to jump into the market and will be left with larges debts to service with little or no equity. That’s what happens when you have a fundamentally broken system around a basic human need. As Adam has pointed out, housing is not something people should see as an investment to make money out of.

So, what about the idea of just banning negative gearing on residential property investment, or, one per person and residential properties can only be negatively geared by an individual, no businesses or trust structures can access negative gearing. We then, to help those forced to jump into the market who are owner occupiers, allow them to negatively gear their own property payments, up to a limit. We could also provide negative gearing support to some/all owner occupiers to keep the market stable. What we want to protect is all owner occupiers past and future so they don’t lose money but keep the prices stagnant so the people struggling to get into the market can now compete.

Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

*

Related Posts

Follow us on Instagram @canberracitynews