There are 25 seats up for grabs in the October 17 ACT election and there is one seat in each of the five electorates of five members that will effectively decide the election – the fifth seat. In a series of articles, political reporter BELINDA STRAHORN has been analysing the fate of each of the “fifth seats”. In this final piece, she looks at Ginninderra.

FORMER ACT Liberal Party leader Bill Stefaniak’s decision to contest the seat of Ginninderra as Belco Party convenor could be the wild card in this election. 

The fifth seat in Ginninderra has traditionally swapped between Labor and a minor party, which means the fifth seat could be heading the Belco Party’s way. The party’s decision to run in Ginninderra could inadvertently hurt the Liberal vote or deprive Labor of any chance of winning three seats in Ginninderra. 

The historic vote affirms that Labor’s stronghold is Belconnen. It currently holds three seats in Ginninderra and has seasoned candidates in Yvette Berry, Gordon Ramsay and Tara Cheyne. The Canberra Liberals have two seats in Ginninderra held by Elizabeth Kikkert and one of the highest-profile members of the party Vicki Dunne, who is retiring and won’t contest October’s election. 

While Labor has traditionally won three seats and the Liberals two seats, the entry of the Belco Party, made up of former ACT attorney-general Stefaniak, ex-Summernats boss Chic Henry, jazz singer Angela Lount, greyhound breeder Alan Tutt and dumped Liberals’ candidate Vijay Dubey, could make the outcome in Ginninderra less clear. 

Will “Belco Bill” do well enough to deprive Labor of a third seat; could his candidacy eat into the Liberal vote and potentially cost the Liberals a second seat in Ginninderra or can he garner enough support to earn a quota and win a spot in the ACT Assembly? 

The fifth seat in Ginninderra has changed hands in almost every election. This points to a long history of voters supporting candidates other than from the major parties. In 1995, the fifth seat was won by Greens’ candidate Lucy Horodny. In 1998, she lost the seat to independent Dave Rugendyke. In 2001, the seat instead went to Roslyn Dundas, of the Democrats. In 2004, the seat went to Labor’s Mary Porter, giving Labor three out of the five seats, which helped give them majority government for the only time in ACT history. In 2008, the third Labor seat was lost to the Greens’ Meredith Hunter and in 2012, Hunter lost her seat to Labor’s Yvette Berry.

With a percentage of voters shifting their allegiances in Ginninderra, the Belco Party – likely to tap into voter resentment over the perceived neglect – stands a good chance of winning one of the five seats on offer. 

Political opinion is divided over which side of politics is likely to benefit or suffer as a result of the Belco Party entering the field. “City News” columnist Paul Costigan says the Liberals are more likely to be in trouble in Ginninderra.

“The Belco Party is not chasing a Labor seat primarily but rather the second Liberal seat,” Costigan said.

“With the Liberals’ first candidate not exactly well known (Elizabeth Kikkert) – and a host of newbies trying for the other spot, unless there is a very strong swing away from Labor, the result could be three Labor, one Liberal and one sort-of-Liberal, Belco Bill.”

While the Belco Party could tap into undecided voters who might otherwise support Labor, Costigan argues that it’s more likely that the Belco Party will draw their support from Liberal supporters.

“It’s easier to convert Liberals to the Belco Party; few Labor voters would stray to Belco Bill and his band of Belco warriors,” said Costigan.

Longtime Liberal MLA for Ginninderra Vicki Dunne’s departure from ACT politics opens the door for “Belco Bill” to capitalise on his status as a former Liberal. Had Stefaniak run for the Liberals, “CityNews” columnist Michael Moore predicts he may have had a better chance.

“At least with Vicki Dunne going and Elizabeth Kikkert appealing to the ultra-conservative side, he has a chance, but at best it’s an outside chance,” Moore said.

“Had he ran with the Liberals, considering his profile, he would have stood a very good chance, but we don’t know what’s happened within the Liberal party and if he has become persona-non-grata.”

The alternate scenario that could play out in Ginninderra hinges on the Belco Party capturing a large percentage of voters unhappy with the Barr government and seriously erode Labor’s support in Ginninderra. 

Recent polling by the Australia Institute indicated that just over 37.5 per cent of respondents would vote Labor this election, the Greens would receive 14 per cent of first-preference votes, and the Liberals recorded 38.2 per cent support. Using this polling, former ACT Chief Minister and Belconnen resident Jon Stanhope suggests the Belco Party’s emergence this election could end up hurting Labor’s vote.

“What that data tells you is if it’s consistent across the Territory, there is no way that the Labor Party can retain the third seat in Belconnen, it’s simply impossible,” said Stanhope.

“There’s a swing against Labor and Labor will not hold the third seat in Belconnen.”

Whilst the Australia Institute’s polling results indicate that an expanded Greens vote will help carry Labor over the line, Stanhope sees a different outcome. 

“Is the Australia Institute saying that the 14 per cent that the Greens are apparently polling is consistent across the Territory?” said Stanhope.

“The answer to that is clearly no. The bulk of that will be in the inner-north and south and perhaps areas around Woden and Weston Creek, I would be surprised if the Greens are polling 14 per cent in Belconnen.”

“The most visible participants at the moment in Belconnen are the Belco Party, they are reasonably well organised, they have a full ticket and they have a couple of candidates with a profile, so I would think that the Belco Party has an equal if not greater chance than the Greens of taking the fifth seat in Belconnen. I’m sure the Greens are still alive, but on the Australia Institute polling it’s more likely to be a non-Greens candidate that will win the fifth seat in Belconnen”.

ANU political lecturer Dr Kim Huynh suggests disaffected Labor voters would be looking to reward an independent or minor party with their vote in Ginninderra. 

Huynh, running as a first-time independent candidate for Ginninderra at the 2016 election, secured the most votes of any micro-party or independent and won more than five per cent of votes cast in his electorate.

“A lot of my preferences came from and went to Labor, so that suggests there are disaffected Labor [voters] looking for an indy [independent],” said Huynh.

“But Bill Stefaniak is a totally different candidate and his party is totally different, but there is no doubt there is disaffected Labor and they are bored of Labor in Belconnen.

“The stats from the 2019 federal election also indicate that west Belconnen is far from left and could lean more away from Labor and lean more towards the Belco Party.

“They have good branding and a good name but you would have to ensure that Bill Stefaniak and Chic Henry poll strongly and that their preferences flow strongly to each other, the other question is who would get more votes, Bill or Chic”? 

Henry ran for a seat in Ginninderra at the 2012 ACT election for the defunct Australian Motoring Party. Henry secured more than 4000 votes or 6.6 per cent of the total vote in Ginninderra, but was not elected. 

Ahead of the 2012 election, Henry told voters to give their second preferences to the Canberra Liberals. The party’s other star candidate is Greyhound breeder Alan Tutt who stood for the Canberra Community Voters Party in Ginninderra in 2012 winning 262 votes.

The chances of other minor parties candidates’ in Ginninderra should not be overlooked, however it’s unlikely any of them will do well enough to outpoll Stefaniak or Henry. 

FIFTH-SEAT PREDICTION

THE Belco Party could stand to be the great disruptor this election by virtue of the fact that running in Ginninderra could hurt both parties. The party could deprive the Liberals of one of their two seats, which would make its chances of forming government harder and if Labor loses a third seat it could derail the Barr government’s chances of holding on to power. Alternatively the Belco Party may end up taking one of the five seats in Ginninderra and play kingmaker in determining who forms government. 

GINNINDERRA

Profile:??The electorate of Ginninderra comprises the district of Belconnen (excluding the suburbs of Giralang and Kaleen).

The name Ginninderra is derived from an Aboriginal word meaning “sparkling like the stars”. It is the name given to the creek that flows through the middle of Belconnen, which was dammed to form Lake Ginninderra, the lake on which the Belconnen Town Centre is sited.

Town centre:?Belconnen

?Suburbs:?Aranda, Belconnen, Bruce, Charnwood, Cook, Belconnen District North and South, Dunlop, Evatt, Florey, Flynn, Fraser, Hawker, Higgins, Holt, Latham, Lawson,Macgregor, Macquarie, McKellar, Melba, Page, Scullin, Spence, Weetangera.

Last result:?Labor 41.4 per cent Liberals 32 per cent 

MLAs:?Labor’s Yvette Berry, Gordon Ramsay and Tara Cheyne, Liberals’ Elizabeth Kikkert and Vicki Dunne (retiring). 

Other candidates:?Canberra Liberals’ Peter Cain, Robert Gunning, Kacey Lam and Ignatius Rozario. Labor candidates Sue Ducker and Greg Lloyd. Greens’ candidates Jo Clay, Katt Millner and Tim Liersch. Belco Party candidates Bill Stefaniak, Chic Henry, Alan Tutt, Angela Lount and Vijay Dubey. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party candidates Matthew Ogilvie and Oliver Smith. Labour DLP candidates Helen McClure and Ian McClure. Australian Climate Change Justice Party candidates Oksana Demetrios, Sok Kheng Ngep and Jonathan Stavridis. Animal Justice Party candidates Carolyne Drew and Lara Drew. Sustainable Australia Party candidates Paul Gabriel and Mark O’Connor. Liberal Democrats’ candidates Dominic DeLuca and Guy Jakeman. Mignonne Cullen Independent.

Earlier articles in this series include Brindabella, Murrumbidgee, Yerrabi and Kurrajong.