There are 25 seats up for grabs in the October 17 ACT election and there is one seat in each of the five electorates of five members that will effectively decide the election – the fifth seat. In a series of articles, political reporter BELINDA STRAHORN has been analysing the fate of each of the “fifth seats”. This week she looks at Yerrabi.

THE fifth seat in Yerrabi could be pivotal in determining which party forms the next government in the ACT. 

Canberra Liberals’ leader Alistair Coe would be anticipating a stronger show of support for the party in his own electorate, and forms an important part of his strategy to wrest government away from Labor and the Greens. 

Without securing additional seats in Yerrabi and Murrumbidgee, Coe’s plan to form majority government would be unlikely to succeed. 

While the Liberal leader is pinning his hopes on an increased vote, Labor’s campaign will be lamenting the loss of popular candidate Meegan Fitzharris, whose personal following would have gone a long way towards shoring up its vote in Yerrabi. If the Liberals can’t consolidate on Fitzharris’ departure, the door is open for a strong independent or a minor-party candidate to steal the fifth seat.? 

Gungahlin voters the most culturally diverse 

In a challenge to both parties, the demographics of Yerrabi, especially around Gungahlin are changing. Yerrabi is the most culturally diverse of the five ACT electorates, with migrants from South Asia and China representing the largest portion of residents, outside of those born in Australia. 

In response, both sides of politics have endorsed candidates from ethnically diverse backgrounds, in order to appeal to voters. 

The Liberals in particular have made a concerted effort to attract voters from diverse backgrounds this election, with the party describing the team taken to the ACT election as? “modern and diverse” with many of its candidates born overseas.? 

Endorsing candidates likely to have widespread appeal to ethnically diverse communities is an “intelligent move”, according to Dr Liz Allen, a demographer and social researcher at the Australian National University. 

“The newer suburbs in Canberra, typically in the Gungahlin area, are home to the largest share of people from the more recent waves of immigration, making the areas more culturally and linguistically diverse than the Canberra average,” said Dr Allen. 

“It’s incredibly smart and strategic that parties would put forward candidates that reflect the people that they are going to represent. 

“It’s not surprising and it’s a pity that we are not seeing more widespread moves to try and represent the wider population by way of having more diverse candidates being presented.”? 

Labor pre-selected Deepak-Raj Gupta at the last election. Though initially unsuccessful, he went on to take the seat upon the retirement of Meegan Fitzharris. Given Gupta was elected on a countback, his true level of support will be tested for the first time this election.? 

A quick glance at the names of candidates selected by the parties gives us some insight into the likely direction of the future representation of Yerrabi and Gungahlin in future elections.? 

Krishna Nadimpalli and Jacob Vadakkedathu, both of Indian descent, are the Canberra Liberals’ candidates in Yerrabi. Vadakkedathu mounted solid campaigns in 2012 and in 2016, where he secured 6.1 per cent of first preference votes. 

Mainul Haque, Canberra Muslim Community president, is running for the ACT Greens and Mohammad Munir Hussain, the man who sought to have the 2016 ACT election declared invalid, is the Federation Party’s candidate in Yerrabi. He is of Bagladeshi descent. Chinese candidate Dr Fuxin Li is standing as an independent.? 

While both major parties have identified capturing as much of the ethnically diverse vote in order to secure the fifth seat in Yerrabi, former candidate Kim Huynh argues it would be a mistake for parties to assume that picking culturally diverse candidates will necessarily translate into more votes for them. 

Huynh’s experience running as an independent in Ginninderra, securing five per cent of the vote at the last election, demonstrates that his Vietnamese heritage alone would not be enough to reach a quota.? 

A lecturer in politics and international relations at the ANU, Huynh and his family arrived as refugees to Australia from Vietnam in 1979. 

“In ethnic communities, people can know you but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll vote for you, this is something I know as a candidate,” he said. 

“It counts to say that you are diverse as a party, but I haven’t heard anyone say anything credible about whether ethnic groups vote in blocks in Canberra.” 

Preparing to do battle in Gungahlin 

Should the Liberals pick up an extra seat in Murrumbidgee, that would bring their tally in the ACT Assembly to 12 members, but they would still need one more seat to form majority government. The most likely way to achieve that outcome would be by securing the fifth spot in Gungahlin. Liberal leader Alistair Coe says the mission is do-able. 

However, veteran electoral analyst Malcolm Mackerras believes that the odds are “distinctly against” the Liberals winning three seats in Yerrabi and therefore going on to form majority government. 

“I think the odds are distinctly in favour of Labor winning three and the Libs winning two in Yerrabi,” said Mackerras. 

“Which would produce the result 12 Liberal, 12 Labor and 1 (independent, minor party or Greens’ candidates), which is the most likely result.” 

Mackerras predicts the Barr government will be returned in 2020. 

What do the other pundits say? 

Pinning its campaign on light rail while continuing to capitalise on Meegan Fitzharris’ popularity, Labor had a good outing in Yerrabi at the last election, picking up 43.9 per cent of the electorate’s vote. 

But “CityNews” columnist Michael Moore has cast doubt on Labor’s chances of replicating its success from last election. 

“Labor does not have the very strong drawcard of Meegan Fitzharris again, however, they are certainly good for two to get elected,” Moore said. 

“I think that Alistair [Coe] will get around a quota and the other Liberal votes will flow through to James Milligan.” 

While the loss of Meegan Fitzharris may alter Labor’s vote, “CityNews” columnist Paul Costigan believes it’s unlikely to alter the outcome with Labor likely to retain the third seat.? 

“At this stage it’s too close to call but most likely the result will be much the same as 2016,” he said. 

The ‘indi’ (independent candidate) factor 

The other likely scenario would be if there were a strong showing by a minor party, such as the Canberra Progressives or an independent such as David Pollard, in the absence of Meegan Fitzharris, which could steal the fifth seat away from Labor.? 

But for that to happen they would have to mount a strong campaign that taps into voter disenchantment with the Barr government and draw appeal from what is an ethnically diverse electorate.? 

Kim Huynh highlights the difficulties faced by candidates from other than the major political parties, because it’s incredibly difficult to secure a quota without the brand recognition that major parties enjoy.? 

“You have to do something wild as an ‘indi’, it’s not enough to be rock solid, you have to do something more, otherwise how are people going to get to know you?” he said. 

Huynh predicts the unofficial mayor of Crace, David Pollard, is worth keeping an eye on in Yerrabi. 

“David Pollard was the best ‘indi’ in Yerrabi. Last time he got two per cent, he’s a great leader in his community and he’s a great communicator but he’s got no brand name behind him.? 

“Really ‘indi’s’ have no chance, and that makes my soul sorry, there’s only five candidates per electorate and you’ve got the 16 per cent quota. 

“David has a huge presence in Crace, he’s a true believer and says things like ‘I’m invigorated by public service’. No one says that, but he really means it.” 

What about the incumbents? 

The support for Labor’s Deepak-Raj Gupta, from the Indian community, may get him over the line, Suzanne Orr has some presence as a minister and Michael Pettersson’s drug policy may get him some votes. 

Alaistair Coe’s own electorate could give the Liberal leader some further advantage. He’s also a consistent performer, polling well in each election he’s run in since 2008. In 2016 Coe secured more than 7000 votes and 14 per cent of the first preferences with James Milligan winning 7.6 per cent of first-preference votes. 

Who else is running? 

Liberals candidate and country music singer Leanne Castley has some experience on the campaign trail, she ran for the seat of Fenner in the federal election, campaigning against Labor’s Andrew Leigh. Canberra Progressive’s candidate Bethany Williams is running a decent social media campaign while the CFMEU’s legal officer Tom Fischer and public servant Georgia Phillips are first-time ACT election candidates for Labor. 

CITY NEWS PREDICTION 

Much like Murrumbidgee, there will be a lot of attention paid to what happens in Yerrabi on election night, because where Gungahlin goes, so too Yerrabi follows and the outcome in these two electorates will most likely determine the fate of the Barr government. The most probable outcome is that Labor will win the third seat, but a strong showing by the Liberals targeting the ethnic vote or by an independent following the loss of Fitzharris’ candidacy for Labor, means that’s not guaranteed.? 

YERRABI 

Profile:?The electorate of Yerrabi comprises the districts of Gungahlin and Hall, the Belconnen suburbs of Evatt, Giralang, Kaleen, Lawson and McKellar and that portion of Belconnen District adjacent to the Barton Highway. The name Yerrabi is derived from an Aboriginal word meaning “go”, “walk” and “to leave”. Yerrabi Pond is one of the major water features of the Gungahlin District. 

Town centre:?Gungahlin 

?Suburbs:?Amaroo, Bonner, Casey, Crace, Forde, Franklin, Giralang, Gungahlin, Hall, Hall District, Harrison, Jacka, Kaleen, Mitchell, Moncrieff, Ngunnawal, Nicholls, Palmerston, Throsby. 

Last result:?Labor 43.9 per cent, Liberals 35.8 per cent.? 

MLAs:?ACT Labor’s Suzanne Orr, Michael Pettersson, Deepak-Raj Gupta, Canberra Liberals’ leader Alistair Coe and James Milligan. 

Other candidates:?Canberra Liberals’ Leanne Castley, Krishna Nadimpalli and Jacob Vadakkedathu, ACT Labor candidates Georgia Phillips and Tom Fischer, ACT Greens candidates Andrew Braddock and Mainul Haque, independents David Pollard and Dr Fuxin Li. Mohammad Munir Hussain for the Federation Party and Canberra Progressives’ candidate Bethany Williams. 

Earlier articles in this series include Brindabella, Murrumbidgee and Kurrajong.